tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-67110372024-02-23T00:43:11.784-07:00Colorado FSOThoughts on foreign policy and other stuffJimhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12937960078174675364noreply@blogger.comBlogger1116125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6711037.post-66963793266294031052022-11-13T18:01:00.002-07:002022-11-13T18:01:20.816-07:00Elon Musk and Humor<p> </p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 16.0pt;">I support Elon Musk’s idea
that Twitter should allow free expression. Social media tends to suppress posts
that are not in line with East and West coast progressive concepts. This is a
lot different from restricting things like crying, “Fire!”<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Musk is facing pressure from both the left
and the right. The right is posting inflammatory texts about race and gender;
the left is screaming at Musk for not blocking such posts.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 16.0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 16.0pt;">Kudos to SNL for allowing Dave
Chappelle to host the show and tell jokes about anti-Semitism.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Today most Jews have no sense of humor,
although some of the greatest 20<sup>th</sup> Century comics were Jews.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>Jimhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12937960078174675364noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6711037.post-53516126458108963202022-11-05T12:16:00.001-06:002022-11-05T12:16:10.521-06:00Lula's Foreign Policy<p> <span style="color: #212121; font-family: "Source Sans Pro"; font-size: 16px;">The following is from a email from Foreign Policy magazine:</span></p><blockquote class="wp-block-quote" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: "Source Sans Pro"; font-size: 16px; overflow-wrap: break-word;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #212121; line-height: 1.6;">When former—and now incoming—Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva took to the podium in São Paulo on Sunday night following his razor-thin election victory over incumbent President Jair Bolsonaro, he first stressed that he would govern for all Brazilians. Then he proceeded to <a href="https://click1.crm.foreignpolicy.com/lmjjjychczjrmmmdrdzyqrfclkryyfhdqdmhkqnqdjjmq_qsdsgshswtmffpgfswnn.html" style="box-sizing: border-box; text-decoration-line: none;">speak extensively</a> about foreign policy.</p></blockquote><blockquote class="wp-block-quote" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: "Source Sans Pro"; font-size: 16px; overflow-wrap: break-word;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #212121; line-height: 1.6;">In his recent international travels, Lula said, “What I hear the most is that the world misses Brazil. They miss that sovereign Brazil that talks to the richest and most powerful countries like an equal and at the same time contributes to the development of poorer ones.”</p></blockquote><blockquote class="wp-block-quote" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: "Source Sans Pro"; font-size: 16px; overflow-wrap: break-word;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #212121; line-height: 1.6;">Lula alluded to his role in past efforts to integrate South America and Latin America by strengthening customs union Mercosur and the now-defunct regional organ Unasur; carry out technical cooperation with African countries; and create the BRICS grouping of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. Going forward, he pledged to work for fairer international trade, take an active role in fighting the climate crisis, and campaign for including more countries as permanent members of the U.N. Security Council. Brazil has for decades <a href="https://click1.crm.foreignpolicy.com/nqpddzmkmwdnqqqtntwzjncmbynzzcktjtqkyjpjtddqk_qsdsgshswtmffpgfswnn.html" style="box-sizing: border-box; text-decoration-line: none;">sought a permanent seat</a> on the council.</p></blockquote><blockquote class="wp-block-quote" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: "Source Sans Pro"; font-size: 16px; overflow-wrap: break-word;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #212121; line-height: 1.6;">Celso Amorim, Lula’s foreign minister during his 2003 to 2010 presidency, has often described Lula’s foreign policy of that period as “<a href="https://click1.crm.foreignpolicy.com/ggnrrhpmpwrdccckdkwhndjpfydhhjmknkcmyntnkrryw_qsdsgshswtmffpgfswnn.html" style="box-sizing: border-box; text-decoration-line: none;">tall and active</a>”: Brazil <a href="https://click1.crm.foreignpolicy.com/yqvkkztvtmknsssfnfmzcnptwlnzzpvfcfsvlcgcfkkls_qsdsgshswtmffpgfswnn.html" style="box-sizing: border-box; text-decoration-line: none;">opened 35 new embassies</a> and launched new cooperation initiatives with countries including the United States, Iran, and Russia. Amorim remains Lula’s top foreign-policy advisor and stood near him on stage on Sunday; he is expected to continue to advise Lula on foreign policy in the new administration.</p></blockquote><blockquote class="wp-block-quote" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: "Source Sans Pro"; font-size: 16px; overflow-wrap: break-word;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #212121; line-height: 1.6;">But the world has changed dramatically since the two were last in office: Sharp geopolitical tensions between Washington and both China and Russia make Brazil’s previous constellation of alliances more difficult to maintain, and Brasília’s global standing has also diminished dramatically under Bolsonaro. Still, Lula appears set to try to resurrect his wide-ranging foreign policy.</p></blockquote><blockquote class="wp-block-quote" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: "Source Sans Pro"; font-size: 16px; overflow-wrap: break-word;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #212121; line-height: 1.6;">In an early sign of goodwill, Lula received a stream of congratulations from the leaders of countries including the <a href="https://click1.crm.foreignpolicy.com/wwfggymjmfgbdddwbwfyzbtmhlbyytjwzwdjlzszwggll_qsdsgshswtmffpgfswnn.html" style="box-sizing: border-box; text-decoration-line: none;">United States</a>, <a href="https://click1.crm.foreignpolicy.com/oktwwvnqnfwdtttkdkfvmdcnpzdvvcqkmktqzmlmkwwzj_qsdsgshswtmffpgfswnn.html" style="box-sizing: border-box; text-decoration-line: none;">France</a>, and <a href="https://click1.crm.foreignpolicy.com/ibhmmfqcqgmwyyybwbgfzwtqrhwfftcbzbychzdzbmmhb_qsdsgshswtmffpgfswnn.html" style="box-sizing: border-box; text-decoration-line: none;">Australia</a> in the minutes after his election victory was confirmed. In at least the U.S. case, <a href="https://click1.crm.foreignpolicy.com/zbpsstqfqzskrrrbkbztdkgqcmkttgfbdbrfmdldbssms_qsdsgshswtmffpgfswnn.html" style="box-sizing: border-box; text-decoration-line: none;">Reuters</a> reported that the quick recognition was an effort to stave off any potential attempt by Bolsonaro to contest the election result. Bolsonaro’s chief of staff said Tuesday that the administration had agreed to a transfer of power, but some of the president’s supporters have continued to <a href="https://click1.crm.foreignpolicy.com/bjjggtmzmdgypppjyjdtbysmnlyttszjbjpzlbqbjgglq_qsdsgshswtmffpgfswnn.html" style="box-sizing: border-box; text-decoration-line: none;">demonstrate</a> against the election results.</p></blockquote><blockquote class="wp-block-quote" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: "Source Sans Pro"; font-size: 16px; overflow-wrap: break-word;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #212121; line-height: 1.6;">In his calls with foreign leaders such as U.S. President Joe Biden, Lula has emphasized <a href="https://click1.crm.foreignpolicy.com/ldjjjychczjrmmmdrdzyqrfclkryyfhdqdmhkqnqdjjkw_qsdsgshswtmffpgfswnn.html?a=Latin+America+Brief&b=56632&c=Latin+America+Brief" style="box-sizing: border-box; text-decoration-line: none;">climate cooperation</a>. He pledged in his victory speech to reach zero deforestation and, according to Reuters, has <a href="https://click1.crm.foreignpolicy.com/mtdnnkvpvwnlccctltwkslzvjqlkkzptstcpqsdstnnqs_qsdsgshswtmffpgfswnn.html" style="box-sizing: border-box; text-decoration-line: none;">been in talks</a> with authorities in Indonesia and the Democratic Republic of the Congo about creating a global alliance for forest protection since before his victory. Norway and Germany have already signaled they <a href="https://click1.crm.foreignpolicy.com/pycmmskvkfmbhhhybyfsdbrkgqbssrvydyhvqdldymmqv_qsdsgshswtmffpgfswnn.html" style="box-sizing: border-box; text-decoration-line: none;">plan to unblock</a> environmental aid that they froze over Bolsonaro’s poor climate record. The president of Lula’s Workers’ Party also said Lula <a href="https://click1.crm.foreignpolicy.com/mdpnnkvpvwnlccctltwkslzvjqlkkzptstcpqsdstnnyw_qsdsgshswtmffpgfswnn.html" style="box-sizing: border-box; text-decoration-line: none;">will attend</a> next week’s U.N. climate conference in Egypt; Bolsonaro, who presided over soaring deforestation in the Amazon, had not announced plans to attend by Thursday.</p></blockquote><blockquote class="wp-block-quote" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: "Source Sans Pro"; font-size: 16px; overflow-wrap: break-word;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #212121; line-height: 1.6;">In an <a href="https://click1.crm.foreignpolicy.com/hhnccgpfpnczvvvszsngmzlpdqzgglfsmsvfqmwmsccbv_qsdsgshswtmffpgfswnn.html" style="box-sizing: border-box; text-decoration-line: none;">interview</a> in the September/October issue of <em style="box-sizing: border-box;">Nueva Sociedad</em>, Amorim waded into today’s thornier foreign-policy topics, offering clues as to how Lula may navigate them in office. He expressed a nonaligned position on U.S.-China tensions. On trade—with both China and the European Union—Amorim said Latin American countries should push for guarantees that help local industry. He also emphasized the threat of nuclear weapons use in Russia’s war in Ukraine; in a <a href="https://click1.crm.foreignpolicy.com/ssbmmdhphjmtbbbctcjdltzhgrtddzpclcbprlklcmmvr_qsdsgshswtmffpgfswnn.html?a=Latin+America+Brief&b=56632&c=Latin+America+Brief" rel="noreferrer noopener" style="box-sizing: border-box; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">separate interview</a>, Amorim supported negotiations to end the conflict and said BRICS members could back them.</p></blockquote><blockquote class="wp-block-quote" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: "Source Sans Pro"; font-size: 16px; overflow-wrap: break-word;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #212121; line-height: 1.6;">Latin American countries should especially work to strengthen their ties with Europe, Amorim said, calling the continent “very important in the multipolar game.” As a starting point, it now appears far more likely that a long-stalled trade agreement between the EU and Mercosur—paused in part over concerns about Bolsonaro’s environmental record—will be approved.</p></blockquote><blockquote class="wp-block-quote" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: "Source Sans Pro"; font-size: 16px; overflow-wrap: break-word;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #212121; line-height: 1.6;">Amorim has stressed that Latin American integration is crucial to Lula’s foreign-policy doctrine. True to form, Lula’s first in-person meeting with a head of state as president-elect was with Argentine President Alberto Fernández on Monday. “I want to give him the hug he deserves,” Fernández said, <a href="https://click1.crm.foreignpolicy.com/zwmsstqfqzskrrrbkbztdkgqcmkttgfbdbrfmdldbsspp_qsdsgshswtmffpgfswnn.html" style="box-sizing: border-box; text-decoration-line: none;">calling Lula</a> a “leader in the region.”</p></blockquote><p style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #212121; font-family: "Source Sans Pro"; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.6;">When I was the science officer at the American Embasy in Brasilia, Celso Amorim was the foreign ministry's adviser to the science ministry. The US wanted to hold a joint science meeting of senior scientists. Celso Amorim was not helpful; he was was not a big fan of the US. However, the meeting did happen. There was some agreement, but nothing much was prodiced as a reult. Fortunately, the science minister was a lot friendler towards the US than Celso Amorim was.</p>Jimhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12937960078174675364noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6711037.post-3520026290096728152022-10-10T12:00:00.003-06:002022-10-10T12:00:40.450-06:00EU Warns That Fed Rate Rises Could Lead to World Recession<p> <span style="color: #212121; font-family: "Source Sans Pro";">The</span><span style="color: #212121; font-family: "Source Sans Pro";"> </span><a href="https://www.ft.com/content/0619b1e6-6afb-4705-9f4a-133102520d49?segmentId=3f81fe28-ba5d-8a93-616e-4859191fabd8" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: "Source Sans Pro"; text-decoration-line: none;">Financial Times </a><span style="color: #212121; font-family: "Source Sans Pro";">reported that the EU warned that Fed rate increases could lead to world recession. It said:</span></p><div class="p-trw3096 pagelayer-inner_row pagelayer-row-stretch-auto pagelayer-height-default" pagelayer-id="trw3096" style="align-content: stretch; box-sizing: border-box; display: flex; flex-flow: row wrap; flex: 1 0 auto; margin-bottom: 15px; position: relative; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s; width: 863.315px;"><div class="pagelayer-row-holder pagelayer-row pagelayer-auto pagelayer-width-auto" style="align-content: stretch; box-sizing: border-box; display: flex; flex-flow: row wrap; flex: 1 0 auto; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; max-width: 1170px; position: relative; width: 863.315px;"><div class="p-wwu6541 pagelayer-col pagelayer-col-2" pagelayer-id="wwu6541" style="align-content: center !important; box-sizing: border-box; display: flex; flex-flow: row wrap; flex: 1 0 auto; position: relative; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s; width: 863.315px;"><div class="pagelayer-col-holder" style="align-content: flex-start; box-sizing: border-box; display: flex; flex-flow: row wrap; flex: 1 0 auto; padding: 10px; position: relative; width: 863.315px;"><div class="p-ccj4284 pagelayer-post_content" pagelayer-id="ccj4284" style="box-sizing: border-box; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s; width: 843.327px;"><div class="entry-content pagelayer-post-excerpt" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><blockquote class="wp-block-quote" style="box-sizing: border-box; overflow-wrap: break-word;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #212121; font-family: "Source Sans Pro"; line-height: 1.6;">The Federal Reserve is leading a worldwide rush of central bank rate rises that risks tipping the world into a recession, the EU’s top diplomat said, as he warned the union is not fighting its corner in the world.</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #212121; font-family: "Source Sans Pro"; line-height: 1.6;">Borrell’s words on US monetary policy follow the World Bank’s warning last month that rate rises by multiple central banks could trigger a global downturn in 2023, as it argued the “degree of synchronicity” by central banks was unlike anything seen in five decades.</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #212121; font-family: "Source Sans Pro"; line-height: 1.6;">His warnings come as the World Bank and IMF kick off a week of joint meetings in Washington, where officials will discuss the multiple threats to the global economy. The fund is expected to downgrade its global economic forecasts for the fourth consecutive quarter.</p></blockquote></div></div></div></div></div></div><div class="p-wl6689 pagelayer-inner_row pagelayer-row-stretch-auto pagelayer-height-default" pagelayer-id="wl6689" style="align-content: stretch; box-sizing: border-box; display: flex; flex-flow: row wrap; flex: 1 0 auto; margin-bottom: 15px; position: relative; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s; width: 863.315px;"><div class="pagelayer-row-holder pagelayer-row pagelayer-auto pagelayer-width-auto" style="align-content: stretch; box-sizing: border-box; display: flex; flex-flow: row wrap; flex: 1 0 auto; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; max-width: 1170px; position: relative; width: 863.315px;"><div class="p-fja274 pagelayer-col pagelayer-col-6" pagelayer-id="fja274" style="align-content: center !important; box-sizing: border-box; display: flex; flex-flow: row wrap; flex: 1 0 auto; position: relative; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s; width: 431.658px;"><div class="pagelayer-col-holder" style="align-content: flex-start; box-sizing: border-box; display: flex; flex-flow: row wrap; flex: 1 0 auto; padding: 10px; position: relative; width: 431.658px;"><div class="p-dcl5111 pagelayer-post_info" pagelayer-id="dcl5111" style="box-sizing: border-box; padding: 0px; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s; width: 411.67px;"><div class="pagelayer-post-info-container pagelayer-post-info-vertical" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><div class="p-7401458 pagelayer-post_info_list" pagelayer-id="7401458" style="box-sizing: border-box; display: inline-block; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;"></div></div></div></div></div><div class="p-jzl6522 pagelayer-col pagelayer-col-6" pagelayer-id="jzl6522" style="align-content: center !important; box-sizing: border-box; display: flex; flex-flow: row wrap; flex: 1 0 auto; position: relative; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s; width: 431.658px;"><div class="pagelayer-col-holder" style="align-content: flex-start; box-sizing: border-box; display: flex; flex-flow: row wrap; flex: 1 0 auto; padding: 10px; position: relative; width: 431.658px;"><div class="p-xsb5673 pagelayer-share_grp pagelayer-share-type-icon-label pagelayer-social-bg-none pagelayer-scheme-official" pagelayer-id="xsb5673" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 0px; text-align: right; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s; width: 411.67px;"><div class="p-9mh2934 pagelayer-share" pagelayer-id="9mh2934" style="box-sizing: border-box; display: inline-block; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s;"><a class="pagelayer-ele-link" href="https://www.facebook.com/sharer/sharer.php?u=cofso.com/2022/10/10/eu-warns-fed-rate-increases-could-lead-to-world-recession/" style="border: none; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank" title="fab fa-facebook-square"><span style="font-family: "Source Sans Pro";"></span><div class="pagelayer-share-content pagelayer-facebook-square" data-icon="fab fa-facebook-square" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #3b5998; display: flex; font-family: "Source Sans Pro"; min-height: 35px; transition: all 400ms ease 0s;"><div class="pagelayer-icon-holder pagelayer-share-buttons" style="border-radius: inherit; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 27px; min-height: 1em; min-width: 1em; position: relative;"></div></div></a></div></div></div></div></div></div>Jimhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12937960078174675364noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6711037.post-48837649254374685142022-10-10T11:58:00.002-06:002022-10-10T11:58:45.115-06:00Are Central Banks Going Bankrupt?<p> <span style="color: #212121; font-family: "Source Sans Pro"; font-size: 16px;">The</span><span style="color: #212121; font-family: "Source Sans Pro"; font-size: 16px;"> </span><a href="https://www.ft.com/content/ddc5d867-59fe-4c9b-a588-4066304318b6?segmentId=3f81fe28-ba5d-8a93-616e-4859191fabd8" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: "Source Sans Pro"; font-size: 16px; text-decoration-line: none;">Financial Time</a><span style="color: #212121; font-family: "Source Sans Pro"; font-size: 16px;">s-looked at whether central banks like the Federal Reserve can go bankrupt. The answer was no, but there are effects. It quotes from a paper by Seth Carpenter at Morgan Stanley:</span></p><div class="p-trw3096 pagelayer-inner_row pagelayer-row-stretch-auto pagelayer-height-default" pagelayer-id="trw3096" style="align-content: stretch; box-sizing: border-box; display: flex; flex-flow: row wrap; flex: 1 0 auto; font-family: "Source Sans Pro"; font-size: 16px; margin-bottom: 15px; position: relative; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s; width: 863.315px;"><div class="pagelayer-row-holder pagelayer-row pagelayer-auto pagelayer-width-auto" style="align-content: stretch; box-sizing: border-box; display: flex; flex-flow: row wrap; flex: 1 0 auto; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; max-width: 1170px; position: relative; width: 863.315px;"><div class="p-wwu6541 pagelayer-col pagelayer-col-2" pagelayer-id="wwu6541" style="align-content: center !important; box-sizing: border-box; display: flex; flex-flow: row wrap; flex: 1 0 auto; position: relative; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s; width: 863.315px;"><div class="pagelayer-col-holder" style="align-content: flex-start; box-sizing: border-box; display: flex; flex-flow: row wrap; flex: 1 0 auto; padding: 10px; position: relative; width: 863.315px;"><div class="p-ccj4284 pagelayer-post_content" pagelayer-id="ccj4284" style="box-sizing: border-box; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s; width: 843.327px;"><div class="entry-content pagelayer-post-excerpt" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><blockquote class="wp-block-quote" style="box-sizing: border-box; overflow-wrap: break-word;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #212121; line-height: 1.6;">Central bank profits and losses matter . . . but only when they matter. Before the 1900s, the subject of economics was called “political economy.” Central bank losses that affect fiscal outcomes may have political ramifications, but the banks’ ability to conduct policy is not impaired . . . . . . </p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #212121; line-height: 1.6;">Starting with the Fed, all the income generated on the System Open Market Account portfolio, less interest expense, realized losses, and operating costs is remitted to the US Treasury. Before the Global Financial Crisis, these remittances averaged $20-25 billion per year; they ballooned to more than $100 billion as the balance sheet grew. These remittances reduce the deficit and borrowing needs. Net income depends on the (mostly fixed) average coupon on assets, the share of liabilities that are interest free (physical paper currency), and the level of reserves and reverse repo balances, whose costs float with the policy rate. From essentially zero in 2007, interest-bearing liabilities have mushroomed to almost two-thirds of the balance sheet.</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #212121; line-height: 1.6;">As the chart below shows, the US central bank’s net income (which have been passed back to the US Treasury) has turned negative, and Morgan Stanley forecasts the losses will rise as interest rates rise.</p></blockquote><figure class="wp-block-image size-full" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0px 1em;"><img alt="" class="wp-image-242" height="451" loading="lazy" sizes="(max-width: 700px) 100vw, 700px" src="https://cofso.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/image.png" srcset="https://cofso.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/image.png 700w, https://cofso.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/image-300x193.png 300w" style="border-radius: inherit; border-style: none; box-sizing: border-box; height: auto; max-width: 100%; vertical-align: bottom;" width="700" /></figure></div></div></div></div></div></div><div class="p-wl6689 pagelayer-inner_row pagelayer-row-stretch-auto pagelayer-height-default" pagelayer-id="wl6689" style="align-content: stretch; box-sizing: border-box; display: flex; flex-flow: row wrap; flex: 1 0 auto; font-family: "Source Sans Pro"; font-size: 16px; margin-bottom: 15px; position: relative; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s; width: 863.315px;"><div class="pagelayer-row-holder pagelayer-row pagelayer-auto pagelayer-width-auto" style="align-content: stretch; box-sizing: border-box; display: flex; flex-flow: row wrap; flex: 1 0 auto; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; max-width: 1170px; position: relative; width: 863.315px;"><div class="p-fja274 pagelayer-col pagelayer-col-6" pagelayer-id="fja274" style="align-content: center !important; box-sizing: border-box; display: flex; flex-flow: row wrap; flex: 1 0 auto; position: relative; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s; width: 431.658px;"><div class="pagelayer-col-holder" style="align-content: flex-start; box-sizing: border-box; display: flex; flex-flow: row wrap; flex: 1 0 auto; padding: 10px; position: relative; width: 431.658px;"><div class="p-dcl5111 pagelayer-post_info" pagelayer-id="dcl5111" style="box-sizing: border-box; padding: 0px; transition: all 0.5s ease 0s; width: 411.67px;"></div></div></div></div></div>Jimhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12937960078174675364noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6711037.post-1012793417362515402022-10-06T23:18:00.004-06:002022-10-06T23:18:57.431-06:00Money Is Still Free<p>Real interest rates are still negative, they are way below
the rate of inflation. The <a href="https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm">last Consumer Price Index
(CPI) inflation reading</a> in August was about 8.3%. The current Fed funds
rate is about 2.5%. The current two-
year Treasury bond rate is about 4.1%.
The ten-year rate is about 3.75%.
None of the interest rates is nearly as high as the inflation rate. Many people think the inflation rate is
dropping, but even if it has dropped to around 6%, it is still about 2% higher
than interest rates. So, money is still
on sale. </p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Interest rates have been about zero, and mortgages have been
about 3%, but house prices were not going up fast until the pandemic, when they
skyrocketed.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If house prices, or other
asset prices, increased at a normal rate, the asset price would only go up by
about the same amount as the interest rate, about 3%. Of course, the stock
market was booming through much of this time, except for the beginning of the
Covid pandemic.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In any case, the
interest rate, almost zero for big borrowers or a few percent for normal
people, was well below the rate of asset appreciation.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>That continues today, despite the Fed’s rate
increases.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Now, instead of zero interest, we have 3% or 4% interest,
but asset appreciation at 8% or 9% is well above that rate.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Real interest rates are still below zero,
although nominal interest rates have gone up.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>The economy is out of whack.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Real
interest rates should be above zero.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The Fed should keep increasing interest rates until they are
higher than the rate of inflation.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They
say they intend to, but Wall Street now thinks the Fed should stop periodically
to check the inflation rate, so that interest rates do not get ahead of
inflation.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If inflation rates do not
slow down, this means that the Fed will continue to maintain a negative real
interest rate, which is an enormous gift to investors.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">After the “great recession” of 2008, the Fed embarked on a
plan of keeping rates low by buying up trillions of dollars’ worth of bonds,
thus keeping interest rates low.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In
essence it destroyed the bond market, because the Fed was always buying
bonds.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In a normal economy, if there are
not customers buying bonds, the interest rate goes up to encourage people to
buy bonds.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If a company needs to raise
money, they have to offer bonds with a rate that will make people buy
them.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But if the Fed will buy anything
and everything, there is no reason to offer higher interest.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This has been called quantitative easing, or
QE.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">As part of the Fed’s new fight against inflation, it has
introduced quantitative tightening, in which it will wind down or sell off its
enormous bond holdings.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This will
operate in tandem with its raising interest rates the old-fashioned way.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Since QE is relatively new, being used in
earnest only after the 2008 recession, QT if even newer.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><a href="https://financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/as-before-feds-qt-unlikely-to-be-like-watching-paint-dry-mcgeever">Janet
Yellen tried it in 2017</a>, when it appeared to contribute to a significant
stock market fall and was discontinued.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>So,
we do not have a lot of data on what it likely to happen when the Fed tries it
this year.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The Fed held about $9 trillion of Treasury bonds and
mortgage-backed securities on June 1.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It
planned to reduce its holdings by $47.5 billion per month for three months, and
then to increase reductions to $95 billion per month.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It remains to be seen how interest rate
increases and QT work together.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The one recent example we have was in the UK, where the new
government’s economic plan of reducing some taxes led to a run on bonds
(“gilts” in Britain), which forced the Bank of England (the British Fed) to
step in and buy bonds as it and the Fed had done under QE, in essence a
reversal of QT.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>QE has been used to
increase liquidity, to grease the bond market, in times of economic difficulty.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Could QT create the reverse condition and
create market difficulties by removing liquidity?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We may find out by trial and error.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>QT might end up being a greater threat to
market stability than interest rate increases.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>Jimhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12937960078174675364noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6711037.post-53557815276784945372022-10-06T23:17:00.003-06:002022-10-06T23:17:47.458-06:00Big National Debt<p> </p><p class="MsoNormal">America’s <span style="background: white; color: #363636; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 15.0pt; line-height: 107%;">gross national debt
exceeded $31 trillion for the first time on October 4.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This happened as interest rates on the debt
will be going up and as the US may be sliding into recession.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The debt has grown due to huge government
spending during the Covid pandemic and to Trump tax cuts.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Until recently the Administration and
Congress were spending like there was no tomorrow, and the Fed was cooperating
with them by keeping interest rates historically low.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Low interest rates led to assertions that deficits
and debts did not matter.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>At higher
interest rates, they may matter.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="background: white; color: #363636; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 15.0pt; line-height: 107%;">If the Fed gets interest rates
back down to 2%, paying interest on the debt may not be too bac, but if
inflation remains at 4% or higher, debt payments will be an increasing burden
on paying for other government programs, such as defense or Social Security.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Some programs will have to be cut in order to
pay additional interest on the debt. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Otherwise
the debt grows bigger.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="background: white; color: #363636; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 15.0pt; line-height: 107%;">An article in the </span><a href="https://www.economist.com/special-report/2022/10/05/the-inflation-problem-will-get-better-before-it-gets-worse?utm_content=article-link-9&etear=nl_today_9&utm_campaign=r.the-economist-today&utm_medium=email.internal-newsletter.np&utm_source=salesforce-marketing-cloud&utm_term=10/5/2022&utm_id=1343879"><span style="font-family: "Calisto MT",serif; font-size: 15.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Economist</span></a><span style="color: #0d0d0d; font-family: "Calisto MT",serif; font-size: 15.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> said that unless Congress and the Administration work with the Fed
by limiting spending, monetary policy (the Fed) eventually loses traction.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Higher interest rates become inflationary,
not disinflationary, because they simply lead governments to borrow more to pay
rising debt-service costs, i.e., the Fed has<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>no way to fight inflation alone.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">In the last few years the US has gone on a massive spending
spree.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We may now have to pay for
it.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We can pay by instituting some sort
of austerity, or we can just get on the inflation bandwagon and ride it into
the future.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>Jimhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12937960078174675364noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6711037.post-23369079232580532332022-09-27T15:46:00.001-06:002022-09-27T15:46:37.784-06:00Polls Are Pretty Useless<p> </p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: large;">TV news lives on polls, but I don’t think they are
accurate.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They show to some extent what
some people are thinking, but they don’t necessarily predict the outcome of
elections unless there is a substantial spread between the responses.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I would not even trust a 10%
differential.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: large;">I think there are many people, like myself, who do not
reaspond to poll questions, so the people polled are not representative, and
many do not respond honestly.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Those who
do respond may strongly favor a candidte and thus tend to respond in wsys they
think will help their candidate, e.g. by saying what issues they think are
important.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: large;">One big problem is that most pollsters are elite Democrats
from left-leaning media or academia.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Conservatives
sense this and when these leftist pollsters call, Republicans are not going to
cooperate with them, because they see them as the enemy. The pollsters have
contempt for the conservatives they interview and the interviewees know
that.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Thus, polls tend to confirm whatever the political
elite thinks is a likely result.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Pollsters
are unable to talk to those who don’t share their opinions.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: large;"><a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2022/09/26/pollsters-fear-elections-2024-00058506">Politico</a>
has an article by Steven Shepard about the difficulties with polls.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It says:</span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="story-textparagraph" style="margin-left: 0.5in;"><span style="font-size: 16pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;">Pollsters
know they have a problem. But they aren’t sure they’ve fixed it in time for the
November election.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="story-textparagraph" style="margin-left: 0.5in;"><span style="font-size: 16pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;">Since
Donald Trump’s unexpected 2016 victory, pre-election polls have consistently
understated support for Republican candidates, compared to the votes ultimately
cast.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="story-textparagraph" style="margin-bottom: 0in; margin-left: .5in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; margin: 0in 0in 0in 0.5in;"><span style="font-size: 16pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;">Once again, polls over the
past two months are showing Democrats running stronger than once expected in a
number of critical midterm races. It’s left some wondering whether the rosy
results are setting the stage for another potential polling failure that dashes
Democratic hopes of retaining control of Congress— and vindicates the GOP’s
assertion that the polls are unfairly biased against them.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="story-textparagraph" style="margin-left: 0.5in;"><span style="font-size: 16pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;">“There’s
no question that the polling errors in [20]16 and [20]20 worry the polling
profession, worry me as a pollster,” said Charles Franklin, the director of the
Marquette Law School Poll in Milwaukee and a longtime survey-taker in the
battleground state of Wisconsin. “The troubling part is how much of that is unique
to when Donald Trump is on the ballot, versus midterms when he is not on the
ballot.”<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="story-textparagraph" style="margin-left: 0.5in;"><span style="font-size: 16pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;">After
2016, </span><a href="https://www.politico.com/story/2017/05/04/2016-election-pollsters-react-237975" target="_blank"><span color="windowtext" style="font-size: 16pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">pollsters said the problem</span></a><span style="font-size: 16pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;"> was their samples included too few voters
without college degrees. The polls were better for the 2018 midterms, though
they were still too Democratic on balance.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="story-textparagraph" style="margin-bottom: 0in; margin-left: .5in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; margin: 0in 0in 0in 0.5in;"><span style="font-size: 16pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;">Then came 2020 — which was
worse than 2016, and for which pollsters have yet to settle on </span><a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2021/07/18/pollsters-2020-polls-all-wrong-500050" target="_blank"><span color="windowtext" style="font-size: 16pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">a definitive explanation</span></a><span style="font-size: 16pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;"> of what precisely went wrong. As a
result, </span><a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2022/05/15/polling-changes-2024-elections-00032540" target="_blank"><span color="windowtext" style="font-size: 16pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">an easy fix</span></a><span style="font-size: 16pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;"> has
proven elusive. But pollsters have mostly agreed that, particularly in 2020,
the surveys missed a chunk of Trump’s voters who refused to participate in
polls.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="story-textparagraph" style="margin-left: 0.5in;"><span style="font-size: 16pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;">And </span><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/12/upshot/polling-midterms-warning.html" target="_blank"><span color="windowtext" style="font-size: 16pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">the New York Times noted</span></a><span style="font-size: 16pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;"> that some of Democrats’ strongest numbers
are coming in the states that have seen the greatest polling misses over the
past few elections.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="story-textparagraph" style="margin-left: 0.5in;"><span style="font-size: 16pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;">Partisan
campaign pollsters in both parties suggested Trump voters are again difficult
to capture in the run-up to this election.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="story-textparagraph" style="margin-left: 0.5in;"><span style="font-size: 16pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;">“There
is a good chance that a lot of the publicly released surveys are overstating
Democratic strength,” said Glen Bolger, a Republican pollster at the firm
Public Opinion Strategies.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="story-textparagraph" style="margin-left: 0.5in;"><span style="font-size: 16pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;">But
some Democrats are daring not just to believe in the polls — but hoping that
the party may actually overperform in November, pointing to two special
congressional election wins last month in Alaska and New York, where polls
showed Republicans ahead going into Election Day.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="story-textparagraph" style="margin-bottom: 0in; margin-left: .5in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; margin: 0in 0in 0in 0.5in;"><span style="font-size: 16pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;">“You just saw the polls
underestimate the victories in both Alaska and in Upstate New York,”
Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney (D-N.Y.), chair of the Democratic
Congressional Campaign Committee, said in an interview at a POLITICO Pro
Premium Roundtable event earlier this month. “So, if anything, the polls may be
showing a conservative bias right now.”<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0.5in;"><o:p> </o:p></p>Jimhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12937960078174675364noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6711037.post-29552797740808913802022-09-17T15:57:00.003-06:002022-09-17T15:57:56.830-06:00Founding Fathers Feared Pure Democracy<p> </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0in; tab-stops: 45.8pt 91.6pt 137.4pt 183.2pt 229.0pt 274.8pt 320.6pt 366.4pt 412.2pt 458.0pt 503.8pt 549.6pt 595.4pt 641.2pt 687.0pt 732.8pt;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 16.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">The Founding Fathers were not
enthusiastic about pure democracy.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In his
excellent book, The Quartet, historian Joseph Ellis describes James Madison’s
views on a democracy that represented the direct choices of “the people.”<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0in; tab-stops: 45.8pt 91.6pt 137.4pt 183.2pt 229.0pt 274.8pt 320.6pt 366.4pt 412.2pt 458.0pt 503.8pt 549.6pt 595.4pt 641.2pt 687.0pt 732.8pt;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 16.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0in; margin-left: .5in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; tab-stops: 45.8pt 91.6pt 137.4pt 183.2pt 229.0pt 274.8pt 320.6pt 366.4pt 412.2pt 458.0pt 503.8pt 549.6pt 595.4pt 641.2pt 687.0pt 732.8pt;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 16.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">“Madison’s experience at both the state
and the federal level had convinced him that “the people” was not some
benevolent, harmonious collective but rather a smoldering and ever-shifting
gathering of factions or interest groups committed to provincial perspectives
and vulnerable to demagogues with partisan agendas. The question, then, was how
to reconcile the creedal conviction about popular sovereignty with the highly
combustible, inherently swoonish character of democracy. Perhaps the most
succinct way to put the question was this: How could a republic bottomed on the
principle of popular sovereignty be structured in such a way to manage the
inevitable excesses of democracy and best serve the long-term public interest? <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0in; margin-left: .5in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; tab-stops: 45.8pt 91.6pt 137.4pt 183.2pt 229.0pt 274.8pt 320.6pt 366.4pt 412.2pt 458.0pt 503.8pt 549.6pt 595.4pt 641.2pt 687.0pt 732.8pt;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 16.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0in; margin-left: .5in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; tab-stops: 45.8pt 91.6pt 137.4pt 183.2pt 229.0pt 274.8pt 320.6pt 366.4pt 412.2pt 458.0pt 503.8pt 549.6pt 595.4pt 641.2pt 687.0pt 732.8pt;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 16.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">“Madison’s one-word answer was
“filtration.” He probably got the idea from David Hume’s Idea of a Perfect
Commonwealth (1754), an uncharacteristically utopian essay in which Hume
imagined how to construct the ideal republican government from scratch.
Ordinary voters would elect local representatives, who would elect the next
tier of representatives, and so on up the political ladder in a process of
refinement that left the leaders at the top connected only distantly with the
original electorate and therefore free to make decisions that might be
unpopular. A republic under this filtration scheme was a political framework
with a democratic base and a hierarchical superstructure that allowed what
Madison described as “the purest and noblest characters” to function as public
servants rather than popular politicians.”<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0in; tab-stops: 45.8pt 91.6pt 137.4pt 183.2pt 229.0pt 274.8pt 320.6pt 366.4pt 412.2pt 458.0pt 503.8pt 549.6pt 595.4pt 641.2pt 687.0pt 732.8pt;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 16.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0in; tab-stops: 45.8pt 91.6pt 137.4pt 183.2pt 229.0pt 274.8pt 320.6pt 366.4pt 412.2pt 458.0pt 503.8pt 549.6pt 595.4pt 641.2pt 687.0pt 732.8pt;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 16.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Originally
there was no direct election of Senators, and Presidents were (and are) elected
by the electoral college.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In 1913 the 17<sup>th</sup>
Amendment changed the process to allow for direct election of Senators.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Prior to the 17<sup>th</sup> Amendment, Senators
were elected by state legislatures.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Madison’s
idea was that there would be different levels of voting.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>“The people” would vote for the lowest level of
legislators, hopefully electing the highest quality men (no women) that they
knew.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>That level would elect the next
level, again hopefully electing the best people they knew, and so on.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Political parties and the primary system have
perverted the system the founders envisaged.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>The electoral college still exists, but in today’s world, few people
know the candidates running to be members of the electoral college.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In general, they are party hacks, not
outstanding members of the community as the founders intended.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">The Constitution
gave to the states the right to determine who could vote in elections.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Most states originally limited the right to
vote to property-owning or tax-paying white males.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Over the years, more and more classes of
people have been granted the right to vote, so that elections are now pretty
much the voice of “the people, ” which Madison feared would lead to the
election of demagogues and other poor leaders.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>Jimhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12937960078174675364noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6711037.post-23839142976208370022022-08-25T10:45:00.003-06:002022-08-25T10:45:47.563-06:00We Can't Stop Global Warming<p> </p><p class="MsoNormal">The <a href="https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/english_paris_agreement.pdf">Paris
Agreement on Climate Change</a> said that the increase in global average
temperature above pre-industrial levels should be held well below 2 degrees
Celsius.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It called for efforts to limite
the temperature increase to 1.5 degrees Celsius.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">We will not achieve this goal.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Achieving this goal would require strenuous efforts by all
the countries of the world, particularly the rich, industrialized
countries.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Very few, if any, countries
are making the required effort.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This
means that we are likely to pass the limits set by the agreement, with the
accompanying disruptions of the climate – storms, droughts, heat waves, floods,
polar melting, sea level rise, etc.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Achieving the goal is further complicated by the energy
crisis brought on by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the reduction of Russian
energy exports to Western and Central Europe. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The European energy crisis is forcing Europe
to turn to polluting fossil fuels – even coal -- <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>that increase global warming.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Renewable energy sources, mainly solar and wind, will not
come on line fast enough to replace fossil fuels.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Nuclear plants also take a long time to build
and need a long lead time to come on line.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>In the short term we will continue to rely on fossil fuels that increase
global warming.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">According to the NOAA <a href="https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-global-temperature">climate.gov</a>
website, the 2021 surface temperature was 0.84 degrees Celsius warmer than the
twentieth century average of 13.9 degrees Celsius and 1.04 degrees Celsius
warmer than the pre-industrial period (1880-1900).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The earth’s temperature has been increasing
by 0.18 degrees Celsius per decade recently.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>So, we don’t have many years to go before we reach and pass the limits
set by the Paris Agreement.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>Jimhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12937960078174675364noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6711037.post-7570142952144552812022-06-29T13:13:00.014-06:002022-07-02T12:12:19.631-06:00The Fed and the Economy<p>The Federal Reserve has been playing fast and loose with the American financial system since the “great recession” of 2008, buying immense amounts of bonds and keeping interest rates near zero. The last 15 years have been so different from the previous hundred years that it is difficult to predict what will come next. Based on what happened in the 1990s dot.com market crash and the 2008 housing market bond crash, I am concerned that an unpleasant surprise is waiting. </p><p>One feature of the market has been unlimited liquidity. Money is readily available to anyone with credit because the Fed has been buying everything in sight. Since the Fed has been buying government and high-quality bonds as soon as they come on the market to soak up any excess, there has been no reason to raise interest rates to entice other buyers to buy them. </p><p>Quantitative Tightening</p><p>Because the Fed has been buying so many bonds for so long under QE, when it switches to disposing of bonds under Quantitative Tightening (QT) the result my be more significant than expected. QE has meant that the hond market has not been a truc market, matching willing buyers and sellers. The Fed has had its finger on the scales, influencing price for years. Now, when it dumps tons of bonds on the market, willing buyers may insist on lower bond prices since there will be so many, which means interest rates will go up as bond prices go down. How will this pressure to raise rates interact with the Fed’s usual method of simply raising the federal funds rate. </p><p>Junk bonds</p><p>On the other hand, businesses that want to raise money have been able to sell their bonds to willing buyers, flush with cash. Because interest rates on high-quality bonds were so low, investors snatched up low-quality (junk) bonds because they paid slightly more interest. So, companies with less-than-ideal credit ratings were able to sell bonds without having to pay a high premium for being a new or less stable business. If credit becomes tighter and the economy slows down (due to the Fed fighting inflation) will these questionable companies be able to continue to pay off the bonds? Even for solid companies, people holding their bonds may have to sell them at a discount because interest rates have gone up. However, many of these companies have loaded up on low-interest loans in the last few years, which means they will not have to refinance at higher rates for several years. </p><p>Historical Interest Rates</p><p>Besides the Fed, another reason interest rates have been low could be the increasing wealth of the extremely wealthy. They have enormous savings, more money than they can ever spend. In a more balanced economy where normal people share more of the wealth, they spend for everyday expenses and don’t have so much excess savings to invest. Thus, there is an upper-class savings glut chasing the same old (or even fewer) things to invest in. </p><p>The following graphs show how low interest rates have been in the last few years by historical standards. Low interest rates change the way the economy works. For example, it works against conservative investment strategies. Bonds and savings accounts pay almost nothing. So, people invest in riskier assets. The fact that they are riskier may come back to haunt the economy. In any case, the economy looks different than it did fifty years ago. The old-style financial system brought us the Great Depression during the 1930s. Will the new economy be more successful in avoiding a disaster? </p><p>50 Year Chart</p><figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img alt="" class="wp-image-340" src="https://compuhandyman.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/10-year-treasury-bond-rate-yield-chart-2022-06-29-macrotrends-1024x646.png" /></figure><p>20 Year Chart</p><figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img alt="" class="wp-image-343" src="https://compuhandyman.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/20-year-treasury-bond-rate-yield-chart-2022-06-29-macrotrends-1.png" /></figure><p>Leverage</p><p>When money is chaap, it is an invitation to use leverage to invest more in the markets. The amount of borrowed money is leverage. Most ordinary margin accounts for buying stock have a limit of 50%, but wealthy individuals or groups can leverage much more, perhaps only invsting 10% or 20% of their own money and borrowing the rest. But this means that if the investment goes bad, they may owe much more than they have invested. The crash of Bill Hwang’s Archegos Capital Management hedge fund in 2021 cost five big banks about $10 billion in losses. Hwang had leverage of about five times his investment; he had about $10 billion of his own money but bought $50 billion of investments. The banks all survived their losses. </p><p>Financialization of the economy</p><p>People are using a new term to describe the economy, financialization. <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/financialization.asp">Investopedia</a> defines it as “the increase in size and importance of a country’s financial sector relative to its overall economy.” In the US the financial sector grew from 2.8% of GDP in 1950 to 21% in 2019. Critics of financialization say that it emphasizes short-term profits over production of goods. It has also created many new and different financial instruments, such as the packaging of mortgages which led to the 2008 financial crisis and the “great recession.” Today, the financial status of housing and mortgages seems safer, but the Fed has been a heavy investor in mortgage-backed securities. With its bond buying program (Quantitative Easing – QE), the Fed has been deeply involved in many aspects of the US economy, more than in any previous generation, so that it remains to be seen whether there any unanticipated results of that involvement. </p><p>Private Equity/Venture Capital</p><p>The liquidity slush fund for rich investors has brought us private equity funds, which do huge transactions buying private companies (unlisted on a stock exchange), or they may take public companies private and into their holdings. Because these private companies are not publicly listed, they do not have the same disclosure requirements that public companies have, which means that not as much is known about their financial situation. There could be some risky clunkers hidden in with profitable jewels. </p><p>The huge amounts of wealth held by the wealthiest investors has also led to the creation of veture capital firms, which invest in new companies before they go public or make any profits. These firms try to identify a new Apple or Google and get in on the ground floor. Many of these investments will not pan out, but the ones that do should more than pay for the ones that don’t. If the economy goes south, there may be less venture capital money, and it may be harder for new ideas to get funded, or for new start-ups to make it to profitability. Like the companies financed by junk bonds, the venture capital companies have loaded up on cheap loans so that they will not have to refinance for some time., according to <a href="https://www.economist.com/leaders/2022/06/30/venture-capitals-reckoning?utm_content=article-link-3&etear=nl_today_3&utm_campaign=r.the-economist-today&utm_medium=email.internal-newsletter.np&utm_source=salesforce-marketing-cloud&utm_term=7/1/2022&utm_id=1222418">the Economist</a> magazine. </p><p>SPACs</p><p>SPACs, or special purpose acquisition companies, are a relatively new financial tool, again one developed because of all the liquidity, or money laying around the accounts of extremely rich individuals. They pour money into a empty company listed on a stock market, and then use it to buy a new, small company and make it a public company under the umbrella of the SPAC registration. Because this is a new tool in addition to the old method of using initial public offerings (IPOs) to take companies public, we do not know whether these companies are as sound as those that met the IPO requirements. </p><p>National Debt</p><p>Finally, as a result of all of this “liquidity” cash bounty handed out by the Fed, the Congress, and the administration, particularly during the COOVID pandemic, the national debt has increased greatly. Today the national debt held by the public stands at about 77% of the country's gross domestic product (GDP), or about $20.5 trillion, according to <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_debt_of_the_United_States">Wikipedia</a>. The Congressional Budget Office expects both the dollar amount and the percentage of GDP to rise in coming years. The United States has the largest <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_external_debt">external debt in the world</a>; as of 2017, its debt-to-GDP ratio was ranked 43rd out of 207 countries and territories</p><p>See the graph below:</p><figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img alt="" class="wp-image-347" src="https://compuhandyman.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/US_Federal_Debt_Held_By_Public_as_of_Sep._2020-1-1024x683.png" /></figure><p>Inflation decreases national debt</p><p>While inflation has the disadvantage of making goods and services more expensive, it has the advantage of making the national debt less expensive. If inflation is running at 10%, each year debt is worth 10% less. The dollars paying it off are worth 10% less. Although the dollar amount of the debt stays the same, it is much less in 2022 dollars, and probably also as a proportion of GDP, which would grow because of inflation, even if the amount of goods and services stayed the same. Of course, the downside is that if inflation continues, interest rates rates will go up, so that the interest rates on bonds sold in 2023 will be much higher than they were in 2020. But debts incurred in the past basically become cheaper. </p><p>Commentators</p><p>Two of the many commentators on economic and financial issues have been particularly insightful, and I believe they are right about where the economy is heading: Larry Summers and Mohammed el-Erian. They both believe that the Fed has failed to react quickly enough to rising inflation. Because of its initial hesitation, it may be more difficult for the Fed to get inflation under control, probably requiring the US to go through a deep or shallow recession before returning to an even keel. I worry that in the process the US may encounter more serious problems like it did during the great depression and the great recession. The pandemic should have imposed financial damage to the US economy, but the extreme actions taken by the government prevented that damage, for the time being, but may have just delayed it. </p><p>Offshoring of Production</p><p>One reason for the extraordinarily good economy of the last two decades has been te transfer of production from high-wage countries like the US and Europe to low-wage countries like China and other Asian nations. This has meant that goods have been produced much more cheaply but sold in more prosperous countries. As Asian wages rise, the benefit will be reduced; goods will become more expensive. In addition, the pandemic interruption of the overseas supply chains has made goods in America less available and more expensive. America talks about returning manufacturing to the US, but the US is far behind in production facilities and skilled workers. 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<!-- /wp:paragraph --><p></p><p>There has been too much reliance on the Fed to keep the US economy running well. The main contribution of Congress and the administration has been to hand out cash several times during the pandemic. While it eased hardship in the short term, it has contributed to inflation now. It probably would have been better to physically hand out food and arrange shelter, rather than hand out cash. Also, there should have been more controls on the cash, since many horror stories are coming out about fraud in claiming the government handouts. The Fed needed more thoughtful help from Congress and administration. Building infrastructure was a good idea, but right now we don’t have workers to fill existing jobs, much less big infrastructure projects. The government needed to figure out how to incorporate the work-from-home movement in its redevelopment plans. Infrastructure cannot be built by people who work from home. </p>Jimhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12937960078174675364noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6711037.post-4151397235547386212022-06-18T17:56:00.000-06:002022-06-18T17:56:53.649-06:00Putin Says Ukraine Can Join EU<p> <a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/russia-has-nothing-against-ukraine-joining-eu-putin-489203">Putin said</a> he has no objection to Ukraine's joining the EU. This is surprising since EU membership has been something that Russian-friendly politicians have opposed since the beginning of the rivalry between them and the Western-friendly politicians began almost ten years ago. </p>Jimhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12937960078174675364noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6711037.post-45221890518678977012022-06-18T14:05:00.001-06:002022-06-18T14:05:19.571-06:00Brazil wll investigate Petrobras<p><a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-18/brazil-s-bolsonaro-says-congress-will-investigate-petrobras">Bloomberg </a>reports that Brazilian President Bolsonaro said that Brazil will investigate Petrobras' gas pricing policy. Investors are worried that the government may force Petrobras to lose money in order to further the government's fight against inflation in Brazil. </p>Jimhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12937960078174675364noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6711037.post-90028624653167802702022-06-18T11:27:00.001-06:002022-06-18T11:27:14.300-06:00Nuclear Power Plants in Wars<p> <span style="color: #212121; font-family: "Source Sans Pro"; font-size: 16px;">In an article in the </span><a href="https://www.economist.com/by-invitation/2022/06/16/nuclear-plants-could-become-dirty-bombs-in-ukraine-warns-serhii-plokhy?utm_content=article-link-3&etear=nl_today_3&utm_campaign=r.the-economist-today&utm_medium=email.internal-newsletter.np&utm_source=salesforce-marketing-cloud&utm_term=6/16/2022&utm_id=1204132" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: "Source Sans Pro"; font-size: 16px; text-decoration-line: none;">Economist magazine</a><span style="color: #212121; font-family: "Source Sans Pro"; font-size: 16px;">, Ukrainian history professor Serhii Plokhy argues that nuclear power reactors pose an unacceptable risk to soldiers and civilians if they are damaged and release radioiactivity. He says:</span></p><blockquote class="wp-block-quote" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: "Source Sans Pro"; font-size: 16px; overflow-wrap: break-word;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #212121; line-height: 1.6;">No commercial nuclear reactors, as opposed to those which produce plutonium, have been built to withstand military attack. No protocols or regulations have ever been created to deal with the possibility of warfare at a nuclear power plant, and no body of international law, including conventions and agreements relating to conduct in war, adequately deal with the possibility.</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #212121; line-height: 1.6;"> It is too easy today to make a credible case for the legality of any attack on a nuclear reactor. This is a dangerous situation.</p></blockquote><blockquote class="wp-block-quote" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: "Source Sans Pro"; font-size: 16px; overflow-wrap: break-word;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #212121; line-height: 1.6;">Yet the war in Ukraine has raised new questions about the future of nuclear energy. To the dangers of nuclear accidents and unresolved issues over spent nuclear fuel, add one more problem: the possibility that nuclear reactors operating today could become dirty bombs in a war. Ukraine demonstrates how such a scenario could come to pass. For the first time, operational civilian plants were attacked by ground forces. It was pure luck that the shells fired by the Russian National Guard, who have little or no combat experience, did not hit any of the reactors at the Zaporizhia station.</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #212121; line-height: 1.6;">The threat posed to nuclear plants in Ukraine raises uncomfortable questions about whether we should continue building them in the future, and the degree to which we can turn to nuclear energy as a means of mitigating climate change. These questions deserve serious consideration. But one answer seems to be obvious even now: we should not build new nuclear plants unless we can find a way to protect existing ones in war.</p></blockquote>Jimhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12937960078174675364noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6711037.post-17309390241440583232022-06-10T17:12:00.002-06:002022-06-10T17:12:36.726-06:00Putin and Proliferation<p> Foreign policy wonks are concerned that Putin’s war in
Ukraine is undermining the nuclear non-proliferation regime, embodied primarily
in the Nuclear Non-Proliferation treaty.
The <a href="https://www.economist.com/leaders/2022/06/02/a-new-nuclear-era?utm_content=article-link-2&etear=nl_today_2&utm_campaign=r.the-economist-today&utm_medium=email.internal-newsletter.np&utm_source=salesforce-marketing-cloud&utm_term=6/2/2022&utm_id=1189392">Economist
magazine</a> and the <a href="https://thebulletin.org/2022/06/why-putins-betrayal-of-ukraine-could-trigger-nuclear-proliferation/?utm_source=Newsletter&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=ThursdayNewsletter06022022&utm_content=NuclearRisk_Putin%27sBetrayalofUkraine_06012022#post-heading">Bulletin
of the Atomic Scientists</a> have both warmed about the increasing danger. </p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Non-nuclear countries like Ukraine that are threatened by nuclear
powers like Russia may believe that in order to protect themselves they must develop
nuclear weapons. Countries with nuclear
weapons may believe that like Russia they can use those weapons to intimidate potential
enemies. The Economist worries that as
memories of World War II fade, the moral resistance to the use of nuclear
weapons will weaken. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">At the moment the two countries that might be most influenced
by this new acceptance of nuclear arsenals are Iran and North Korea, both of which
have on-going nuclear programs. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists points out that when
the Soviet Union collapsed, Ukraine had 4,400 nuclear weapons, the third most
after the US and Russia. After extended
negotiations, Ukraine agreed to return the nuclear weapons to Russia in return
for security assurances from the US and Russia.
Ukraine agreed to join the Non-Proliferation as a non-nuclear
state. Ukraine may now regret its
decision to give up nuclear weapons, which would have been a bargaining chip in
its relations with Russia. <o:p></o:p></p>Jimhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12937960078174675364noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6711037.post-75990317884810404222022-05-03T08:47:00.001-06:002022-05-03T08:47:19.012-06:00Tucker Carlson and Immigration<p>The three-part hatchet job done on Tucker Carlson by the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/30/us/tucker-carlson-gop-republican-party.html">New
York Times</a> shows how worried they are about him. Carlson’s defense of Vladimir Putin and the
January 6 attack on the Capitol are wrong and baseless, but some of his other
targets are legitimate, particularly immigration. </p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">As a former consular officer who issued visas for two years
in Sao Paulo, Brazil, I think the immigration system is broken. In two years, I issued only one visa to a
person who filed for asylum after he arrived in the US. It was a bad case; I never should have issued
the visa, but I issued it at the request of an American missionary who said he
wanted to send this man to the States to tell his supporters what good work he
was doing in Brazil. This case generated
more legal questions and paperwork than any other visa I issued during my
assignment in Brazil. Knowing how much time and effort this one case
consumed, I can’t image how much the thousands of applications filed on our
southern border must require. The system
is overwhelmed and broken. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Even forty years ago in Brazil, I was upset that if I
refused a visa to a Brazilian because I thought he would work illegally, it
probably meant he would not be able to go to the US, but if a Mexican was
refused a visa he would just walk across the border. It did not seem fair. Now there are many Brazilians, Africans, Arabs
and others who just walk across the border, although they have to travel much
farther to walk the last few hundred yards.
<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The US should admit immigrants, but it should decide which
immigrants to admit. When I issued
visas, some of the tests for a visa were whether the immigrant would go on
welfare after arriving, whether he would displace an American worker, whether
he was healthy or had any contagious disease, for example. It sounds like the last test is the only one
still applied, and when Title 42 no longer applies, that test will disappear,
too. Basically, the US has no immigration
requirements; it’s an open border. With
unemployment at 3%, foreign workers will not likely displace Americans, but how
much longer will full employment last? How
many new arrivals will receive some sort of public assistance within a year or
two of their arrival? <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">This may be the immigration system that Americans want, but
no one has voted for it either at the polls or in Congress. I don’t know whether this is the immigration
system that the Democratic Party wants, or whether they have just acquiesced in
what the immigrants have forced on them.
I tend to think that Tucker Carlson is right, that this is what the
Democrats want, because most of these immigrants will vote Democratic as soon
as they are able to vote. But this is
not a fair representation of all Hispanic voters, because many Hispanics came
to the US legally and at least some must resent the fact that the new arrivals
did not, and have been shown extreme favoritism by the American
government. So, all Hispanics may not
vote as a block, but newly arrived Hispanics will vote as a Democratic block. You don’t have to be a racist white
nationalist to believe that immigration is a problem, as the New York Times article
claims. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The Times’ series on Tucker Carlson fails to recognize that
immigration is a serious problem that the American government has failed to
deal with. Carlson is justified in
saying that will affect the future of the United States. The Times calls this a racist viewpoint, but
the Times calls everything racist. It
has its prejudices and refuses to look beyond them. The Times gushes over how wonderful a Somali
community is that lives a few miles from Mr. Carlson’s house in Maine but fails
to note how the arrival of Somalis in Minneapolis has transformed that city
from NPR’s characterization of it as a Norwegian community where “every child
is above average” into a hell-hole of violence and death. The Times is as blind and bigoted as Mr.
Carlson. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">But I can’t buy Mr. Carlson’s views on the January 6
attempted coup or on Vladimir Putin. The
Times quotes him as asking why we hate Putin when Putin never called Carlson a
racist or threatened to fire him. Of
course, we hate Putin because he has killed thousands of innocent civilians,
many women and children, even if he never did those other little things Carlson
mentioned. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">For me there is no question that January 6 was an
abomination. It was an attempted
coup. The election was legal, but it was
not without problems. Many of the states
where the vote was most in question changed the way they voted shortly before the
election, in almost every case to make it easier to vote absentee, which
favored the Democrats. However, these
changes were made legally, often justified by the Covid pandemic, and the votes
were counted accurately. The election
was legal, but I would say that it was not exactly fair. I believe that absentee voting should be the
exception and not the rule, but I recognize that this may be a minority opinion
among the American people. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">I’m sure that there are other issues Mr. Carlson has raised
that I may or may not agree with. I
favor a school curriculum that pretty much sticks to the “three r’s,” reading,
‘riting, and ‘rithmetic, not so much sex or politicizing, for example. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Anything the Times disagrees with, they tend to call “white
nationalism” or “white supremacy,” or some other pejorative term. The Times fails to recognize that many of
these ideas they attack made the United States the most successful, freeist,
prosperous country in the world during the 20<sup>th</sup> century. If results matter, these ideas should not be trashed
because they were not 100% successful. Maybe
everybody was not totally successful or free or prosperous, but if you lived in
the US, you probably had a better chance of doing so than if you lived anywhere
else. These virtues should not be
discarded. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Carlson apparently decided early on that Donald Trump the
man was unreliable, but Trump the political movement had legs. Trump was a terrible President, and an even
worse human being. But Trump did see
some things that were seriously wrong with the US, like immigration, although he,
like his predecessors, failed to fix them.
He probably should go to jail for his financial shenanigans, but he was
falsely accused by the Steele dossier, partially funded by the Democratic Party,
of being a Russian pawn. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">While I disagree with a lot of things Mr. Carlson says on
his program, I also disagree with a lot of things in the New York Times
article. In his heart, Carlson may be
racist, but the things he says about immigration problems are not racist; they
are real. The New York Times failure to
recognize that is a blot on the fairness of the Time’s reporting. The Times has sold its soul to the Democratic
Party. If you want truth, look somewhere
else. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>Jimhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12937960078174675364noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6711037.post-71501936973776945302022-03-30T11:57:00.000-06:002022-03-30T11:57:08.331-06:00Financial Calm in the Face pf the Ukraine Storm <p>The <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/4c4c4c04-151c-467c-b011-136d56546da9">Financial Times</a> questions why the markets are so calm in the face of the Ukraine war. </p><p> The west’s financial warfare against Russia has been dramatic. Commodity markets are chaotic, stoking already uncomfortably high inflation, and global economic growth forecasts have been marked down as a result. Many businesses face big hits from their exits from Russia.
Yet many investors and analysts have been surprised at the remarkably modest fallout for the global financial system, and the lack of broader, serious reverberations so far. After initially deepening the global stock market sell-off, the MSCI All-Country World Index has now jumped back above its prewar level, and the Vix volatility index — a proxy for how much fear there is in markets — has slipped below its long-term average, indicating a fall in anxiety.</p><div>More information can be <a href="https://www.ft.com/tour">found here</a>.<div><div><a href="https://www.ft.com/content/4c4c4c04-151c-467c-b011-136d56546da9">https://www.ft.com/content/4c4c4c04-151c-467c-b011-136d56546da9</a></div></div></div>Jimhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12937960078174675364noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6711037.post-89966307721325546922022-03-30T11:33:00.001-06:002022-03-30T11:33:43.221-06:00Brazilian Democracy<p> The <a href="https://adst.org/2015/03/brazils-long-detour-on-the-road-to-democracy/">Association of Diplomatic Studies and Training</a> has posted a history of the development of Brazilian democracy. </p><p><span style="background-color: #fbfbfb; color: #191919; font-family: Roboto; font-size: 13.2px;">Brazil’s path to democracy was far from perfect and often tortuous. In 1961, a “possibly half insane” Janio Quadros was elected to the presidency. One of his more miscalculated moves was to threaten resignation if Congress did not give him more power. Congress instead accepted his resignation, and his successor, Joao “Jango” Goulart became President. Goulart, however, was much too leftist for most people and on March 31</span><span style="background: rgb(251, 251, 251); border: 0px; color: #191919; font-family: Roboto; font-size: 13.2px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">st</span><span style="background-color: #fbfbfb; color: #191919; font-family: Roboto; font-size: 13.2px;"> 1964, he was overthrown by Brazil’s Armed Forces; U.S. involvement was suspected, but denied by Ambassador Lincoln Gordon. What followed was a military dictatorship that ruled for twenty years with an iron fist, often torturing its own citizens under the guise of maintaining order. </span></p>Jimhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12937960078174675364noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6711037.post-66738119552402893722022-03-29T12:54:00.003-06:002022-03-29T12:54:52.966-06:00North Korean Proliferation<p> </p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #000230; font-family: univers, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 16px;">The </span><a href="https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/dprkchron" style="font-family: univers, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 16px;">Arms Control Association</a><span style="background-color: white; color: #000230; font-family: univers, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 16px;"> has published a chronology of North Korean Nuclear and Missile Diplomacy:</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #000230; font-family: univers, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.6; margin: 0px 0px 1.25rem; padding: 0px; text-rendering: optimizelegibility;">For years, the United States and the international community have tried to negotiate an end to North Korea’s nuclear and missile development and its export of ballistic missile technology. Those efforts have been replete with periods of crisis, stalemate, and tentative progress towards denuclearization, and North Korea has long been a key challenge for the global nuclear nonproliferation regime.</p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #000230; font-family: univers, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.6; margin: 0px 0px 1.25rem; padding: 0px; text-rendering: optimizelegibility;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem;">The United States has pursued a variety of policy responses to the proliferation challenges posed by North Korea, including military cooperation with U.S. allies in the region, wide-ranging sanctions, and non-proliferation mechanisms such as export controls. The United States also engaged in two major diplomatic initiatives to have North Korea abandon its nuclear weapons efforts in return for aid.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #000230; font-family: univers, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.6; margin: 0px 0px 1.25rem; padding: 0px; text-rendering: optimizelegibility;">In 1994, faced with North Korea’s announced intent to withdraw from the nuclear <a href="https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/nptfact.asp" style="border: none; box-sizing: border-box; color: #005581; line-height: inherit; text-decoration-line: none;">Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT)</a>, which requires non-nuclear weapon states to forswear the development and acquisition of nuclear weapons, the United States and North Korea signed the <a href="https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/agreedframework.asp" style="border: none; box-sizing: border-box; color: #005581; line-height: inherit; text-decoration-line: none;">Agreed Framework</a>. Under this agreement, Pyongyang committed to freezing its illicit plutonium weapons program in exchange for aid.</p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #000230; font-family: univers, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.6; margin: 0px 0px 1.25rem; padding: 0px; text-rendering: optimizelegibility;">Following the collapse of this agreement in 2002, North Korea claimed that it had withdrawn from the NPT in January 2003 and once again began operating its nuclear facilities.</p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #000230; font-family: univers, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.6; margin: 0px 0px 1.25rem; padding: 0px; text-rendering: optimizelegibility;">The second major diplomatic effort were the Six-Party Talks initiated in August of 2003 which involved China, Japan, North Korea, Russia, South Korea, and the United States. In between periods of stalemate and crisis, those talks arrived at critical breakthroughs in 2005, when North Korea pledged to abandon “all nuclear weapons and existing nuclear programs” and return to the NPT, and in 2007, when the parties agreed on a series of steps to implement that 2005 agreement.</p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #000230; font-family: univers, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.6; margin: 0px 0px 1.25rem; padding: 0px; text-rendering: optimizelegibility;">Those talks, however, broke down in 2009 following disagreements over verification and an internationally condemned North Korea rocket launch. Pyongyang has since stated that it would never return to the talks and is no longer bound by their agreements. The other five parties state that they remain committed to the talks, and have called for Pyongyang to recommit to its 2005 denuclearization pledge.</p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #000230; font-family: univers, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.6; margin: 0px 0px 1.25rem; padding: 0px; text-rendering: optimizelegibility;">In January 2018, another diplomatic effort began when North Korean leader Kim Jong Un declared the country's nuclear arsenal "complete" and offered to discuss with Seoul North Korea's participation in the South Korean Olympics. North Korea's delegation to the Olympics included Kim Jong Un's sister, who met with South Korean President Moon Jae-in. That meeting led to a sustained inter-Korean dialouge, including a meeting between Kim Jong Un and Moon Jae-in April 27 that produced a declaration referencing the shared goal of denuclearization of the Korean peninsula.</p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #000230; font-family: univers, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.6; margin: 0px 0px 1.25rem; padding: 0px; text-rendering: optimizelegibility;">During a high-level meeting with South Korean officials in Pyongyang in March, Kim Jong Un conveyed his interest in meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump. Trump accepted the offer and the two leaders will meet June 12 in Singapore. </p>Jimhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12937960078174675364noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6711037.post-66517844726353487102022-02-12T08:59:00.001-07:002022-02-12T08:59:22.677-07:00Putin's Goal<p> Putin's goal is probably to replace Zelensky with a Putin hack aided by some Putin goons He would use his surrounding troops to suppress any public uprising. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /><p></p>Jimhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12937960078174675364noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6711037.post-73013881447819923142022-01-11T15:44:00.003-07:002022-01-11T15:44:46.536-07:00Immigration and Voting<p> </p><p class="MsoNormal">It appears from the various bills and campaigns that the
Democrats are pushing that their goal is to bring millions of Central American
immigrants to the US and have them vote for Democrats.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The Democratic effort to bring more
immigrants into the US has been going on for years.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">It is likely that the Democratic drive to bring Latino
immigrants into the US was one of the main reasons that Donald Trump was
elected President.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>His first campaign
speech, when he rode down the escalator at Trump Tower, was about immigration.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Trump is white trash and he knows how white
trash thinks.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He knows the Democrats despise
white trash and believe that destroying its political power is their road to
political victory.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>That’s one reason
they applaud and encourage the destruction of Confederate statues.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Not all Southerners are white trash, but
Democrats think they are.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">By vilifying white trash and stuffing the country with immigrant
blacks and Hispanics, the Democrats elected Donald Trump.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>To offset the Republican votes for Trump that
they are creating, the Democrats are working overtime to get the vote for the
new immigrants they have brought into the country.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The latest effort is in New York, where they have
said that you do not have to be an American citizen to vote in New York
elections.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They are also working to
speed up naturalization requirements, working to remove any residency time or knowledge
of American history requirements, especially for preferred categories, such as
DACA applicants.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It’s all part of a
Democratic effort to make America less white, less European, more African, more
Latino, and more Democratic (the party, not the political system).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>Jimhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12937960078174675364noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6711037.post-83214069017283759222022-01-10T00:33:00.001-07:002022-01-10T00:33:22.250-07:00Voting Rights<p>The Democratic Party and the talking heads are consumed with
voting rights. They want to write a new
law that will make it easier to vote, because they claim that Republicans will write
new local laws and elect local officials who will make it more difficult to
vote, especially for non-whites. I
believe on the contrary that voting laws should be make stricter. They should require in-person voting, and a
government picture ID should be presented in order to vote. Absentee ballots should be issued only for
special cases when they are applied for ahead of time because of travel,
sickness, or some other specific problem on election day. </p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The supporters of universal, mail-in voting, which we have
here in Colorado, claim that no fraud.
In a CNN special that Fareed Zakaria did on the issue, one spokesman said
that one study had found only 31 illegal votes in one billion. This claim seems ludicrous on its face;
nothing in nature is that exact. Is it absolutely
impossible that a husband would accidentally fill out his wife’s ballot while
she filled out his, forgetting to check the name on the ballot? Is it impossible that a neighbor or friend would
drop in on an elderly voter with a ballot and say, “Let me fill that out for
you.” Fareed says this sort of thing happened
only 31 times out of one billion. I
think it is more likely to happen 31 times out of 1,000 or maybe 10,000. If everybody is so honest, why do we monitor
examinations? Do teachers just like
watching students take tests? The odds
of being struck by lightning are about 1 in 500,000. This would be about 2,000 in 1 billion; so, it’s
about 65 times more likely that you will be struck by lightning than that
someone would vote illegally. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">How can Fareed Zakaria and his voting rights supporters make
such a ridiculous argument? Because
there is no data to check on the validity of the votes. They do check signatures, but with millions
of ballots, how accurate can that check be, especially if the check is against
the signatures on drivers licenses, which may be years out of date. They can claim that cheating is impossible,
but I don’t believe them. I think there is
no proof of cheating because there is no trustworthy evidence trail to test for
cheating. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The Democrats rail at people who say vote by mail is
untrustworthy, but I don’t trust it. If
you want me to trust election results, you had better vote in person showing
picture ID. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">On the other hand, I think voting is an inexact science,
even when voting in person, People spoil ballots, put their X in the wrong
place, get the candidates’ names mixed up, etc.
So, I think the results of the 2020 election are close enough that we
should accept them and move on. Joe
Biden is President. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">I think there is actually a better argument that Al Gore was
elected President in 2000, but as a patriot, he refused to drag the country
through months of uncertainly, and conceded.
The Supreme Court in Bush v. Gore basically told Florida to stop
counting the ballots, just declare a winner based on the results we have right
now, regardless of what the actual count might be. The Supreme Court said an exact count of
ballots is not necessary; just give it your best effort. The Cornell Law School <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/wex/bush_v_gore_(2000)">Legal Information Institute</a>
said: “The larger impact of this case was an increased distrust in the voting
processes. Some scholars say that the decision affected the Supreme
Court’s image as an independent judicial body and exposed it to accusations of
partisanship.” The chickens came
home to roost in 2020. <o:p></o:p></p>
<br clear="all" style="mso-special-character: line-break; page-break-before: always;" />
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>Jimhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12937960078174675364noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6711037.post-72312121734689157322021-12-29T10:32:00.002-07:002021-12-29T10:32:44.291-07:00China and the MTCR<p><span style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-family: Merriweather; font-size: 18px;">According to <a href="https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202112/1243652.shtml">Global Times:</a> </span></p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-family: Merriweather; font-size: 18px;">China officially applied to join the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) in 2004, and has since maintained communication and exchanges, with five rounds of dialogue focusing on China's accession and issues regarding control systems, lists and the enforcement of missile export controls. China referred to the MTCR Guidelines and Annex when formulating its missile export control regulations and control list.</span></p>Jimhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12937960078174675364noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6711037.post-6390908918136910692021-12-22T12:23:00.001-07:002021-12-22T12:23:53.744-07:00French Nuclear Problems<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjyNDBncBr6giSNHV_d-EfI8XhY2ZQuOxNAu7kfMEzvBthnZ_lc413ha6Kxr1DzQtNE0HyOuIGXyGsoVTjwIc8VtdQVxQWA1eLJ7cYjs2ie8WCFIUp-UBeATDwwzoHz4A-iFNm5_pW1YhPSUz-ON7nEjE1XrLyyynBZ0vxLKpltSAAO6syOVw=s960" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="634" data-original-width="960" height="211" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjyNDBncBr6giSNHV_d-EfI8XhY2ZQuOxNAu7kfMEzvBthnZ_lc413ha6Kxr1DzQtNE0HyOuIGXyGsoVTjwIc8VtdQVxQWA1eLJ7cYjs2ie8WCFIUp-UBeATDwwzoHz4A-iFNm5_pW1YhPSUz-ON7nEjE1XrLyyynBZ0vxLKpltSAAO6syOVw=s320" width="320" /></a></div><br />France, which depends on nuclear reactors for 70 percent of
its electric power, is shutting down two reactors after problems were found
near welds on some pipes in its safety system, according to <a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/edf-extend-civaux-nuclear-outage-shut-down-reactors-chooz-safety-measures-2021-12-15/">Reuters</a>.
The French power company EDF said this
would mean a cutback in power production of about 1 terawatt-hour by the end of
the year. The cutback will aggravate the
power crisis in Europe, where natural gas prices have skyrocketed in the last
few months. <p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Germany has decided to shut down all of its nuclear power
reactors, although it still trades some power with France, and thus relies to
some extent on nuclear reactors in France.
The lack of German nuclear power will increase Germany’s reliance on
Russian natural gas, which is a major diplomatic concern as a result of Russia’s
military threats against Ukraine. <o:p></o:p></p>Jimhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12937960078174675364noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6711037.post-22136576918187691932021-12-18T16:49:00.000-07:002021-12-18T16:49:01.567-07:00EU Moving Towards Nuclear Power<p> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhyzs4usnkLRDueIfLh73BWJQRedjxi416LBCoKwxR0844MV_2isukhhQVH4xRpkOjaMG--5U47tCt-J0QIMOEzIV6bBOzl-zCpT3RMWLV2NoPuLrH5zy9AQtQmAk2mkd6Lu4eAukivsnuzQdNxw_ynzC0Ljcu1DcoyNMvYF2SsSm_rdvjnzQ=s730" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="411" data-original-width="730" height="180" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhyzs4usnkLRDueIfLh73BWJQRedjxi416LBCoKwxR0844MV_2isukhhQVH4xRpkOjaMG--5U47tCt-J0QIMOEzIV6bBOzl-zCpT3RMWLV2NoPuLrH5zy9AQtQmAk2mkd6Lu4eAukivsnuzQdNxw_ynzC0Ljcu1DcoyNMvYF2SsSm_rdvjnzQ=s320" width="320" /></a></div><br />The <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-30/eu-considers-giving-some-gas-and-nuclear-projects-green-label">European
Union will soon decide</a> whether it will classify nuclear power plants as a
clean source of energy, according to Bloomberg.
I think it should. The <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/12/18/nuclear-energy-climate-france-germany/">New
York Times</a> reports from a French town on the border with Germany about the
dispute between France and Germany on the future of nuclear energy. A nuclear plant in the French town of
Fessenheim has been decommissioned, pleasing the Germans, but French President
Macron has stated that he wants to begin construction of new nuclear power
plants in France. France gets more of
its electricity from nuclear power plants than any other country and is behind
only the United States in the number of operating nuclear plants. <p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">In addition, the Netherlands coalition government has said that
it wants to make nuclear energy part of its long-term green energy plan. It announced
that it will keep its Borselle nuclear plant, built in 1973, open longer and
will build two new nuclear plants, according to <a href="https://world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/Nuclear-makes-a-comeback-in-the-Netherlands">World
Nuclear News</a>. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">I was pleased to see <a href="https://davekopel.org/">David
Kopel</a> on “<a href="https://video.rmpbs.org/video/december-17th-2021-edition-xilvfz/">Colorado
Inside Out</a>” complement the
Netherlands by saying that the Netherlands decision represented “the only realistic
way for energy independence and to fight global warming.” <o:p></o:p></p>Jimhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12937960078174675364noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6711037.post-46915024000157431962021-12-07T15:23:00.001-07:002021-12-07T15:23:30.195-07:00Facing Up to Putin<p> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhNhwF3H72qBCqYs9Qq7tQ3P43oaXkOpPFadwc60biZayYPgadVIzLreL2S4AqHYED0to-_vy5jwH0-asgEmtERe0nqUQ8YrmSFfNPjJCni1k9ok69fWllZJ1Pj8ilzUKXTWF7u/s2048/Putin.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1365" data-original-width="2048" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhNhwF3H72qBCqYs9Qq7tQ3P43oaXkOpPFadwc60biZayYPgadVIzLreL2S4AqHYED0to-_vy5jwH0-asgEmtERe0nqUQ8YrmSFfNPjJCni1k9ok69fWllZJ1Pj8ilzUKXTWF7u/s320/Putin.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br />Ukraine is not Poland.
Putin’s threat to take back all or part of Ukraine is somewhat different
from a threat to take part of Poland or Hungary. Poland, Hungary and other former members of
the Warsaw Pact have a history of being independent countries for centuries. For a thousand years, Ukraine has been more
or less a part of Russia. Under the
Soviet Union, Ukraine was the “Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic,” while
Poland and the other Warsaw Pact nations remained independent countries, even
if in name only. <p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The Baltic states, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia, were also
SSRs which were part of the Soviet Union, like Ukraine, but they all have much
longer and clearer histories of independence than Ukraine. Putin was not pleased when the Baltic states
joined NATO in 2004, and that may be one reason he is so determined not to see
Ukraine follow in their footsteps. Other
former Warsaw Pact countries have joined NATO, such as Albania, Bulgaria, and
Romania. The populations of most of the
countries of the Russian “near abroad” (countries that used to be part of the
old USSR) are happy to be out from under Russia, but there are some individuals
who still look to Russia nostalgically. Russia’s
relationship with some of the other “near abroad” countries that have not
joined NATO is somewhat murky, such as Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and the
various “stans,” Kazakhstan being the largest.
<a href="https://tass.com/world/1327703">Turkmenistan</a> became
important during the American evacuation from Afghanistan. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Ukraine’s independence, although it has been a fact for
about twenty years, is somewhat like one of the United States, Texas or
California, becoming independent. Of course, the Southern states tried this
during the Civil War, and the European powers did not intervene to any great
extent. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The main concern in today’s world is that one country should
not take another country’s territory by force.
This is exactly the kind of thing that the United Nations and NATO were
designed to prevent. We have had wars for
independence and territory in the former Yugoslavia, in Africa, and in other
parts of the world. Ukraine is a
somewhat unusual case, and for that reason it may not be a good place to draw a
line in the sand that might lead to war.
Putin as posited several “<a href="https://apnews.com/article/europe-russia-ukraine-vladimir-putin-moscow-cd558699728e9ae935eaadf940efeb18">red
lines</a>” that he will not tolerate crossing by the West. <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-59528864">Biden has replied</a>
that the US will not accept red lines. However,
it does not appear that Ukraine is an ideal place for the West to go to war
with Russia. Russia would be fighting on
its own border; it has cultural ties to Ukraine, even if no legal claims. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">On the other hand, we should not appear to give permission
to Putin to take part of Ukraine by force or threat. To do so would appear like the appeasement
that did not work with Hitler before World War II. It might encourage Putin to assert more
authority over other countries in Russia’s “near abroad.” He is clearly nostalgic for the old Soviet
Union and all the satellite states it controlled. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">On balance, it looks as if non-military means, such as sanctions,
are the best response to Putin’s threats.
Sanctions of any kind are weak and unlikely to harm Putin personally,
but they do show that we do not approve of what he is doing. They may be enough of a nuisance to dissuade him
from trying similar moves with other bordering countries. If Putin expands his threats, then maybe NATO
will have to return to its original role as a united front against Russia as it
was against the old Soviet Union. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">We don’t yet know exactly what Biden and Putin said in their
conversation. Perhaps their conversation
will help determine what our next steps should be. <o:p></o:p></p>
<br clear="all" style="mso-special-character: line-break; page-break-before: always;" />
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Putin threatened by working democracy in Ukraine<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>Jimhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12937960078174675364noreply@blogger.com0