The New York Times reported Sunday that the nuclear components turned over to the US by Libya were missing a key item, the centrifuge rotors for enriching uranium. This is like a car company saying we got a model of our competitor's car, and then finding out that the model they got has no motor. They got some worthwhile stuff, but they missed some of the most important stuff.
According to the article, we don't know what happened to some stuff. Thus, somebody in some Arab country could be sitting on the most valuable parts of the centrifuges.
Another disquieting fact in the article is the rivalry between the US and the IAEA, who should be cooperating.
Tuesday, December 28, 2004
Where Is Burma (Myanmar)?
Reports of damage wrought by the tsunami have not mentioned Burma (Myanmar), but if the tsunami hit Bangladesh (to the west) and Thailand (to the east), it must have hit Burma. Why has there been so much attention to the damage in Thailand, which was much less than in Sri Lanka and Indonesia? Because there were reporters there. You can almost hear the editors or producers saying, get that reporter who is Phuket for vacation!
There are almost no reporters in Burma, because it is an almost closed society. If a tsunami hits and there is no one to report it, does it actually happen? Similarly, there has been little reporting from Ache, because Ache is in rebellion against the central Indonesia government, and access to reporters there has been limited. It's interesting that two of the hardest hit areas, Sri Lanka and Ache are engaged in civil wars. That certainly makes relief efforts more difficult.
The Australian press has mentioned Burma, with deaths there now estimated at 90. I'm guessing that this number would be much higher if the government of Burma were more cooperative.
There are almost no reporters in Burma, because it is an almost closed society. If a tsunami hits and there is no one to report it, does it actually happen? Similarly, there has been little reporting from Ache, because Ache is in rebellion against the central Indonesia government, and access to reporters there has been limited. It's interesting that two of the hardest hit areas, Sri Lanka and Ache are engaged in civil wars. That certainly makes relief efforts more difficult.
The Australian press has mentioned Burma, with deaths there now estimated at 90. I'm guessing that this number would be much higher if the government of Burma were more cooperative.
Monday, December 20, 2004
US Invites Iran into Iraq
The New York Times weighs in with an article pointing out a danger that has concerned me for some time: Our policy on elections in Iraq is likely to strengthen the Shiites there and their ties to Iran.
According to a National Geographic Desk Reference, the majority of Muslims are Sunnis. It says that 84 percent of Muslims are Sunni, but 90 percent of Iranians are Shiite, and 60 to 65 percent of Iraqis are Shiite. Since the bulk of the Shiites live in Iran and Iraq, it would seem only natural that if the Shiites do well in the Iraq elections, they will form a alliance of some kind with the Shiites in Iran. But because the Sunnis ruled Iraq under Saddam, and because they seem to form a major part of the current insurgency, we are throwing our lot in with the Shiites in Iraq, while we roundly condemn the Shiites who rule Iran. Our elections may have the perverse result of creating an Iraq that is even more opposed to US interests than it was under Saddam, and perhaps will be a greater danger. Don't forget that Iran may actually be developing nuclear weapons, whereas Iraq under Saddam was only pretending to be developing them in recent years.
According to a National Geographic Desk Reference, the majority of Muslims are Sunnis. It says that 84 percent of Muslims are Sunni, but 90 percent of Iranians are Shiite, and 60 to 65 percent of Iraqis are Shiite. Since the bulk of the Shiites live in Iran and Iraq, it would seem only natural that if the Shiites do well in the Iraq elections, they will form a alliance of some kind with the Shiites in Iran. But because the Sunnis ruled Iraq under Saddam, and because they seem to form a major part of the current insurgency, we are throwing our lot in with the Shiites in Iraq, while we roundly condemn the Shiites who rule Iran. Our elections may have the perverse result of creating an Iraq that is even more opposed to US interests than it was under Saddam, and perhaps will be a greater danger. Don't forget that Iran may actually be developing nuclear weapons, whereas Iraq under Saddam was only pretending to be developing them in recent years.
Brazil Accused of Nuclear Weapons Ambitions
InfoBrazil has published an article raising questions about whether Brazil might be developing some sort of nuclear weapon, based on its refusal to let the IAEA look at the centrifuges used to enrich uranium in Brazil. This is a touchy issue, because it is Iran's centrifuge program that has created the most controversial problems for its nuclear program.
One important difference is that Brazil probably does not pose a nuclear threat to anyone, even if it develops nuclear weapons, unlike Iran, which poses a threat to Israel, Iraq, and perhaps a few other neighbors. In the old days, when I served in Brazil dealing with the nuclear issue in the American embassy there, Argentina was a nuclear rival with Brazil. Argentina took the lead in defusing this rivalry. Nevertheless, if Brazil developed a bomb, Argentina might feel pressed to develop one, too.
Another important difference is the way safeguards imposed by the IAEA are handled in Brazil and Iran. It appears that Brazil has been much more forthcoming with the IAEA, only imposing the restriction that IAEA inspectors cannot look at the centrifuges. The IAEA can monitor what goes into and comes out of the centrifuges, thus assuring that no uranium is being "highly" enriched. Iran, on the other hand, has been much less cooperative, and the IAEA has had to be much more insistent to find out where the centrifuges are, and then to find out what they are doing.
One important difference is that Brazil probably does not pose a nuclear threat to anyone, even if it develops nuclear weapons, unlike Iran, which poses a threat to Israel, Iraq, and perhaps a few other neighbors. In the old days, when I served in Brazil dealing with the nuclear issue in the American embassy there, Argentina was a nuclear rival with Brazil. Argentina took the lead in defusing this rivalry. Nevertheless, if Brazil developed a bomb, Argentina might feel pressed to develop one, too.
Another important difference is the way safeguards imposed by the IAEA are handled in Brazil and Iran. It appears that Brazil has been much more forthcoming with the IAEA, only imposing the restriction that IAEA inspectors cannot look at the centrifuges. The IAEA can monitor what goes into and comes out of the centrifuges, thus assuring that no uranium is being "highly" enriched. Iran, on the other hand, has been much less cooperative, and the IAEA has had to be much more insistent to find out where the centrifuges are, and then to find out what they are doing.
Letter to Editor in Denver Post
The Denver Post published a letter to the editor about the India non-proliferation issue.
Thursday, December 16, 2004
DU Prof Downplays Indian Proliferation
University of Denver Professor Ved Nanda said in the Denver Post that India was pleased with George Bush's re-election, in part because Bush "is not seen as ideologically stuck on a non-proliferation agenda and, hence, India's nuclear status is likely to gain acceptance without its formally signing the Non-Proliferation Treaty." Later he said, "India has found U.S. cooperation in high technology, nuclear energy, space exploration and missile defense to be very positive steps."
Although our ignoring the fact that India became a nuclear power, despite the U.S. best efforts to prevent the spread of nuclear proliferation, is good for bilateral U.S.-India relations, it is not good for the worldwide non-proliferation regime. Other countries, Iran and North Korea in particular, will see India's flouting of the non-proliferation regime as evidence that they can do it, too. Already people are saying that the lesson of Iraq (which failed) and India (which succeeded) is that you have to build your atomic bomb before you challenge the U.S., and that this is what North Korea and Iran may be doing.
There are efforts to strengthen and reform the NPT and the IAEA, in particular to get rid of IAEA chief Mohammed ElBaradei. But these efforts ignore the fact that the NPT and similar treaties require the offending country to join voluntarily. If these countries perceive that the NPT or its successor is entirely one-sided, that it only requires sacrifices by non-nuclear countries and none by nuclear countries, like the U.S., then they will not join. The NPT requires the nuclear countries to negotiate disarmament, but there have been no serious, binding disarmament talks among the nuclear powers for years.
By removing any international opprobrium for going nuclear, and by making nuclear weapons a sign of great power status, the Bush Administration, Ved Nanda and other pro-Indian writers may be clearing the way for Iran, North Korea, and some other countries (Brazil or South Korea, for starters) to become nuclear powers in the near or mid-term future.
A recent interview, reported by AFP, given in South Korea by Indian Foreign Minister Natwar Singh, in which he urged North and South Korea not to follow India's example by becoming nuclear powers, illustrates how confusing this situation has become. "Natwar's N-speak baffles New Delhi," said a front page headline in Thursday's Indian Express. The Express said Singh "virtually expressed regret over India's current nuclear status" and contradicted the stand taken by former Congress premier Rajiv Gandhi who sanctioned in 1989 pursuit of a nuclear weapons program. The newspaper quoted a senior unnamed Indian foreign ministry official as saying Singh's remarks reflected "his personal view."
A clarification issued about a day later, and reported in NewKerala.com said that the Foreign Minister had said (or meant to say) that the two Koreas should not go nuclear because they had signed the NPT, unlike India. India has refused to sign the NPT because it considers it unfairly discriminatory between countries that had nuclear weapons when the NPT was negotiated, like the U.S., and those that did not, like India, which went nuclear too late to be exempted by the treaty.
Although our ignoring the fact that India became a nuclear power, despite the U.S. best efforts to prevent the spread of nuclear proliferation, is good for bilateral U.S.-India relations, it is not good for the worldwide non-proliferation regime. Other countries, Iran and North Korea in particular, will see India's flouting of the non-proliferation regime as evidence that they can do it, too. Already people are saying that the lesson of Iraq (which failed) and India (which succeeded) is that you have to build your atomic bomb before you challenge the U.S., and that this is what North Korea and Iran may be doing.
There are efforts to strengthen and reform the NPT and the IAEA, in particular to get rid of IAEA chief Mohammed ElBaradei. But these efforts ignore the fact that the NPT and similar treaties require the offending country to join voluntarily. If these countries perceive that the NPT or its successor is entirely one-sided, that it only requires sacrifices by non-nuclear countries and none by nuclear countries, like the U.S., then they will not join. The NPT requires the nuclear countries to negotiate disarmament, but there have been no serious, binding disarmament talks among the nuclear powers for years.
By removing any international opprobrium for going nuclear, and by making nuclear weapons a sign of great power status, the Bush Administration, Ved Nanda and other pro-Indian writers may be clearing the way for Iran, North Korea, and some other countries (Brazil or South Korea, for starters) to become nuclear powers in the near or mid-term future.
A recent interview, reported by AFP, given in South Korea by Indian Foreign Minister Natwar Singh, in which he urged North and South Korea not to follow India's example by becoming nuclear powers, illustrates how confusing this situation has become. "Natwar's N-speak baffles New Delhi," said a front page headline in Thursday's Indian Express. The Express said Singh "virtually expressed regret over India's current nuclear status" and contradicted the stand taken by former Congress premier Rajiv Gandhi who sanctioned in 1989 pursuit of a nuclear weapons program. The newspaper quoted a senior unnamed Indian foreign ministry official as saying Singh's remarks reflected "his personal view."
A clarification issued about a day later, and reported in NewKerala.com said that the Foreign Minister had said (or meant to say) that the two Koreas should not go nuclear because they had signed the NPT, unlike India. India has refused to sign the NPT because it considers it unfairly discriminatory between countries that had nuclear weapons when the NPT was negotiated, like the U.S., and those that did not, like India, which went nuclear too late to be exempted by the treaty.
FBI Steps Up Investigation of AIPAC
The Christian Science Monitor and the Middle East Times are both reporting that the FBI has stepped up its investigation of AIPAC (American Israel Public Affairs Committee), mentioned earlier here.
According to these reports, the FBI got mad when Pentagon analyst Larry Franklin, who had been caught giving sensitive documents to AIPAC, stopped cooperating with the FBI, which has now initiated a grand jury investigation. On December 1, it raided AIPAC offices to search for incriminating information in the offices of several senior AIPAC officials: the FBI seized the hard drives and files of Steven Rosen, director of research, and Keith Weissman, deputy director of foreign policy issues; the FBI also served subpoenas on AIPAC executive director Howard Kohr, managing director Richard Fishman, communications director Renee Rothstein and research director Raphael Danziger.
According to these reports, the FBI got mad when Pentagon analyst Larry Franklin, who had been caught giving sensitive documents to AIPAC, stopped cooperating with the FBI, which has now initiated a grand jury investigation. On December 1, it raided AIPAC offices to search for incriminating information in the offices of several senior AIPAC officials: the FBI seized the hard drives and files of Steven Rosen, director of research, and Keith Weissman, deputy director of foreign policy issues; the FBI also served subpoenas on AIPAC executive director Howard Kohr, managing director Richard Fishman, communications director Renee Rothstein and research director Raphael Danziger.
Monday, December 13, 2004
Did Pakistan Test a North Korean Bomb?
The Asia Times says that Pakistan may have tested a North Korean bomb in 1998, rather than a Pakistani bomb.
This would raise questions about both programs. It the bomb was North Korean, does Pakistan have a bomb that works? A Muslim bomb?
If it was North Korean, does that mean that North Korea has actually put its plutonium from reprocessing into bombs?
According to the Carnegie Endowment's book Deadly Arsenals, Pakistan claims to have conducted five tests on May 28, 1998; however, they produced only one seismic signal, which tends to indicate only one explosion, with an indicated yield of 6-13 kilotons. Another test on May 30, 1998, produced a seismic indication of a bomb with a yield of 2-8 kilotons.
The Asia Times article says that the "only" bomb A.Q. Khan exploded in Pakistan was a North Korean bomb, which tends to undercut its theory, since the Carnegie Endowment (and other sources) say Pakistan tested at least two bombs, if not more.
In any case, the allegation strengthens the article's claim that Pakistan's refusal to allow the US (or the IAEA, or some neutral organization) to interrogate A.Q. Khan leaves this issue murky, and the US acceptance of Pakistani stonewalling is a major failure of US non-proliferation policy.
This would raise questions about both programs. It the bomb was North Korean, does Pakistan have a bomb that works? A Muslim bomb?
If it was North Korean, does that mean that North Korea has actually put its plutonium from reprocessing into bombs?
According to the Carnegie Endowment's book Deadly Arsenals, Pakistan claims to have conducted five tests on May 28, 1998; however, they produced only one seismic signal, which tends to indicate only one explosion, with an indicated yield of 6-13 kilotons. Another test on May 30, 1998, produced a seismic indication of a bomb with a yield of 2-8 kilotons.
The Asia Times article says that the "only" bomb A.Q. Khan exploded in Pakistan was a North Korean bomb, which tends to undercut its theory, since the Carnegie Endowment (and other sources) say Pakistan tested at least two bombs, if not more.
In any case, the allegation strengthens the article's claim that Pakistan's refusal to allow the US (or the IAEA, or some neutral organization) to interrogate A.Q. Khan leaves this issue murky, and the US acceptance of Pakistani stonewalling is a major failure of US non-proliferation policy.
Tuesday, December 07, 2004
Unfriendly Takeover
When Bush was elected President in 2000, we had a federal budget surplus of around $200 billion. Now, after the first four years of the Bush Administration we have an annual deficit estimated at about $445 billion. If Clinton had not left Bush a huge surplus, Bush would not have been able to run up the huge deficits that he has with his tax cuts and Iraq War. Interestingly, the "War on Terrorism" has cost almost nothing compared to the War on Iraq, which has been enormously expensive, since we haven't done things like protecting our seaports, chemical plants or food supply, which would have been much more important to protecting America from a future terrorist attack than invading Iraq.
We have, however, used the Clinton surplus to make a large transfer of wealth to the most wealthy Americans through the Bush tax cuts, and we have given millions to defense contractors, such as Halliburton, for the Iraq War. Unfortunately, the lesson is, don't do the right thing. If you don't spend the Federal Government's money on your constituency, e.g., Clinton on Democratic welfare programs, then the Republicans will take that saved money and spend it on their constituency, i.e., the obscenely wealthy.
It's not unlike a corporate raider taking over a company and then destroying it by selling off its assets for more than he paid for the company. Watch the movie "Pretty Woman" for an elementary lesson in how this works. In the movie, Richard Gere develops a conscience and does the right thing. There is no sign that George Bush has a conscience to develop. He stands only for greed all the way to the bank. Laura Bush, who seems like a decent woman, appears to have less influence over George Bush than Julia Roberts, who plays a whore, has over Richard Gere in the movie.
The fact that evil trumps good in American politics is a bad sign for our future, sort of a Gresham's law of politics. (Note the reference to Aristophanes' "The Frogs" in the Wikipedia link: "So with men we know for upright, blameless lives and noble names. These we spurn for men of brass...." It is exactly the political reference intended here. Unfortunately, if Aristophanes saw it thousands of years ago, it's nothing new; just a bad aspect of human nature.)
We have, however, used the Clinton surplus to make a large transfer of wealth to the most wealthy Americans through the Bush tax cuts, and we have given millions to defense contractors, such as Halliburton, for the Iraq War. Unfortunately, the lesson is, don't do the right thing. If you don't spend the Federal Government's money on your constituency, e.g., Clinton on Democratic welfare programs, then the Republicans will take that saved money and spend it on their constituency, i.e., the obscenely wealthy.
It's not unlike a corporate raider taking over a company and then destroying it by selling off its assets for more than he paid for the company. Watch the movie "Pretty Woman" for an elementary lesson in how this works. In the movie, Richard Gere develops a conscience and does the right thing. There is no sign that George Bush has a conscience to develop. He stands only for greed all the way to the bank. Laura Bush, who seems like a decent woman, appears to have less influence over George Bush than Julia Roberts, who plays a whore, has over Richard Gere in the movie.
The fact that evil trumps good in American politics is a bad sign for our future, sort of a Gresham's law of politics. (Note the reference to Aristophanes' "The Frogs" in the Wikipedia link: "So with men we know for upright, blameless lives and noble names. These we spurn for men of brass...." It is exactly the political reference intended here. Unfortunately, if Aristophanes saw it thousands of years ago, it's nothing new; just a bad aspect of human nature.)
Monday, December 06, 2004
A Cabinet of Midgets: Cheney and Rumsfeld Clean House
Naming high school dropout Bernard Kerik as Secretary of Homeland Security confirms that Bush is creating a cabinet of midgets, people with no personal political base and little management experience. Gov. Tom Ridge was a failure as Homeland Security Secretary, but that was partly because he didn't have the background to be a mini-Defense secretary; that wasn't his strong point. Kerik has even fewer credentials for the job.
HHS Secretary Tommy Thompson was less of a failure than Ridge. As a man with some ideas who did not like being jerked around, he probably felt frustrated in his job because he couldn't get any political support for things he thought were important. A hint of that tension with the White House came out in his resignation remarks about the possibility of an attack on the American food supply. It was a strange remark, but it probably was something he had tried unsuccessfully to get the White House to focus on. It may have been a place-holder for Social Security reform, an HHS issue on which Thompson, as an intelligent man, probably disagreed with the White House, but was told not to mention it in public.
Keeping Rumsfeld, who is not a political midget, in the cabinet indicates that he will rule the roost, with no competition from people with stature, like Colin Powell. It may be a portent of the future that Treasury Secretary Snow is on the way out. Snow came in as a midget to replace the outspoken Paul O'Neill, who had served in previous administrations as well as being CEO of Alcoa. Snow was not up to the job. It's doubtful that the new midgets, including Condi Rice, who is afraid to stand up to Rumsfeld, will do much better than Snow.
HHS Secretary Tommy Thompson was less of a failure than Ridge. As a man with some ideas who did not like being jerked around, he probably felt frustrated in his job because he couldn't get any political support for things he thought were important. A hint of that tension with the White House came out in his resignation remarks about the possibility of an attack on the American food supply. It was a strange remark, but it probably was something he had tried unsuccessfully to get the White House to focus on. It may have been a place-holder for Social Security reform, an HHS issue on which Thompson, as an intelligent man, probably disagreed with the White House, but was told not to mention it in public.
Keeping Rumsfeld, who is not a political midget, in the cabinet indicates that he will rule the roost, with no competition from people with stature, like Colin Powell. It may be a portent of the future that Treasury Secretary Snow is on the way out. Snow came in as a midget to replace the outspoken Paul O'Neill, who had served in previous administrations as well as being CEO of Alcoa. Snow was not up to the job. It's doubtful that the new midgets, including Condi Rice, who is afraid to stand up to Rumsfeld, will do much better than Snow.
Bush Copies Hitler
The following is a quotation from The Rise and Fall of the Third Reich, which unfortunately has a bearing on the current debate in the United States about the UN. Currently Senator Norm Coleman is making vitriolic attacks on Kofi Annan in a Republican attempt to destroy the UN.
In his speech to the German Reichstag on April 28, 1939, Hitler said:
Later in the book, Shirer quotes Hitler as saying:
In his speech to the German Reichstag on April 28, 1939, Hitler said:
Mr. Roosevelt declares that it is clear to him that all international problems can be solved at the council table.
As Hitler noted, attacks by powerful countries on the weakness of international institutions, such as the League of Nations and the United Nations, are self-fulfilling prophecies.I would be very happy if these problems could really find their solution at the council table. My skepticism, however, is based on the fact that it was America herself who gave sharpest expression to her mistrust in the effectiveness of conferences. For the greatest conference of all time was League of Nations . . . representing all the peoples of the world, created in accordance with the will of an American President. The first State, however, that shrank from the endeavor was the United States . . . It was not until after years of purposeless participation that I resovled to follow the example of America. (Shirer, Rise and Fall of the Third Reich, pp. 472-473.)
Later in the book, Shirer quotes Hitler as saying:
I shall give a propagandist reason for starting the war -- never mind whether it is plausible or not. The victor will not be asked afterward whether he told the truth or not. In starting and waging a war it is not right that matters, but victory. (Ibid, p. 32.)Does that remind you of the Iraq War?
Friday, December 03, 2004
Trailer Park Trash and the Elite
Bill Clinton was trailer park trash from Arkansas who worked his way into the elite of the Democratic Party, and eventually into the elite of the world. Politically he appealed the better side of human nature. He was an accepted player on the world stage, despite his personal low standards involving relations with a number of women who lived (or should have lived) in or near trailer parks.
George Bush II was born with a silver spoon in his mouth, the child of an elite New England family, but he chose to align himself politically with trailer park trash. He is a pariah on the world stage because he appeals to the worst in his supporters. Certainly one of the worst things is his use of torture and other inhumane methods employed by Osama bin Laden and his terrorist colleagues. You can't fight terrorism with terrorism and maintain high standards.
I think the nadir may have been the blood-bath slaughter of Uday and Qusay Hussein. Why should anyone cry over the death of such terrible people? Because someone has stand up for the morals and decency. When you compare what happened in Iraq to how the US handled the capture and trial of the Nazis who committed atrocities in World War II, there is no comparison. Eisenhower was a decent man, who respected human beings; the Germans struggled to surrender to the Western powers rather than to the Soviets. In Iraq it's questionable whether the Iraqis prefer the US to the Iranians, whom they have fought for generations. How did we sink so low? Mr. Bush, you're no Eisenhower.
George Bush II was born with a silver spoon in his mouth, the child of an elite New England family, but he chose to align himself politically with trailer park trash. He is a pariah on the world stage because he appeals to the worst in his supporters. Certainly one of the worst things is his use of torture and other inhumane methods employed by Osama bin Laden and his terrorist colleagues. You can't fight terrorism with terrorism and maintain high standards.
I think the nadir may have been the blood-bath slaughter of Uday and Qusay Hussein. Why should anyone cry over the death of such terrible people? Because someone has stand up for the morals and decency. When you compare what happened in Iraq to how the US handled the capture and trial of the Nazis who committed atrocities in World War II, there is no comparison. Eisenhower was a decent man, who respected human beings; the Germans struggled to surrender to the Western powers rather than to the Soviets. In Iraq it's questionable whether the Iraqis prefer the US to the Iranians, whom they have fought for generations. How did we sink so low? Mr. Bush, you're no Eisenhower.
US Claims It Can Use Evidence Gained by Torture
According to an AP story, "Evidence gained by torture can be used by the U.S. military in deciding whether to imprison a foreigner indefinitely at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, as an enemy combatant, the government concedes.
"Statements produced under torture have been inadmissible in U.S. courts for about 70 years. But the U.S. military panels reviewing the detention of 550 foreigners as enemy combatants at the U.S. naval base in Cuba are allowed to use such evidence, Principal Deputy Associate Attorney General Brian Boyle acknowledged at a U.S. District Court hearing Thursday."
America's embrace of torture is so disappointing, so horrendous, that it's difficult for me to deal with. As the bumper stickers say, "Shit happens," but we don't have to embrace it and approve it. Principal Deputy Associate Attorney General Brian Boyle has earned a black place in history along side Hitler and the Third Reich. "The horror! The horror!" We are in the heart of darkness.
"Statements produced under torture have been inadmissible in U.S. courts for about 70 years. But the U.S. military panels reviewing the detention of 550 foreigners as enemy combatants at the U.S. naval base in Cuba are allowed to use such evidence, Principal Deputy Associate Attorney General Brian Boyle acknowledged at a U.S. District Court hearing Thursday."
America's embrace of torture is so disappointing, so horrendous, that it's difficult for me to deal with. As the bumper stickers say, "Shit happens," but we don't have to embrace it and approve it. Principal Deputy Associate Attorney General Brian Boyle has earned a black place in history along side Hitler and the Third Reich. "The horror! The horror!" We are in the heart of darkness.
Wednesday, December 01, 2004
White House States It Is at War with Russia
If we thought that Bush was still getting along with Putin -- despite the claim of a new strategic missile, despite cracking down on the Yukos oil company and other oligarchs, despite centralizing Russian power after terrorist attacks, and despite interfering in the Ukrainian elections -- it's now clear that the Bush-Putin love affair is over. When Venezuela said it might buy MiG jets, a White House official traveling with Bush in Canada said, "Let me put it this way: We shoot down MiGs." So, Russia is the enemy again. America is out to destroy Russian military aircraft, whenever and wherever found.
However, the White House later backed away from its bellicose remarks. According to reports, "A White House National Security Council spokesman later sought to clarify the official's remarks. 'It's clearly an issue that we would monitor,' Sean McCormack said. 'He didn't mean to imply anything more or less.'"
I wonder who "he" is.
However, the White House later backed away from its bellicose remarks. According to reports, "A White House National Security Council spokesman later sought to clarify the official's remarks. 'It's clearly an issue that we would monitor,' Sean McCormack said. 'He didn't mean to imply anything more or less.'"
I wonder who "he" is.
Tuesday, November 30, 2004
Red Cross Finds Torture by Americans at Guantanamo
The International Committee of the Red Cross found that the American military has used methods "tantamount to torture" on prisoners at Guantanamo Bay, according to the New York Times. One of the biggest concerns of the Red Cross was the assistance of military doctors to interrogators in providing information on the physical condition of prisoners.
Of course, the abuses at Guantanamo and Abu Ghraib did not occur in a vacuum. The Administration at the very highest levels has approved ignoring the Geneva Convention, which should protect prisoners of war. The Administration's culpability is documented in Seymour Hersh's book: Chain of Command, The Road from 9/11 to Abu Ghraib.
Of course, the abuses at Guantanamo and Abu Ghraib did not occur in a vacuum. The Administration at the very highest levels has approved ignoring the Geneva Convention, which should protect prisoners of war. The Administration's culpability is documented in Seymour Hersh's book: Chain of Command, The Road from 9/11 to Abu Ghraib.
Friday, November 26, 2004
Killers of Intel Reform Prefer Death of Troops
The Congressmen who killed intelligence reform along the lines recommended by the 9/11 commission apparently prefer the continued deaths of American troops to intelligence reform that would cost some of their patrons money or power. Congressmen Duncan Hunter and James Sensenbrenner were the two mainly responsible, aided by Congressman Gingrey (R-GA), Defense Secretary Rumsfeld, and Joint Chiefs Chairman Myers.
They claim they killed the bill because it would not allow sufficient military control over tactical military intelligence that the Pentagon needs, as opposed to big picture strategic intelligence that the White House, the State Department, and the CIA need. But recent news articles strongly refute that position. One strong argument against killing the bill was given by Congressman Gingrey, who apparently thought it supported his position. He said on the PBS Newshour on November 24:
A final example of how ignorant those Republicans are, and how uncaring for troops in the field, is an article in MIT's Technology Review for November 2004. The cover article shows Lt. Col. Ernest "Rock" Marcone with the title, "How Tech Failed Him." The article says:
This is the wonderful system that cannot be compromised in order to reform the intelligence community. I don't know how the people who make those arguments -- Hunter, Sensenbrenner, and Gingrey -- can look at themselves in the mirror, knowing that they are putting the lives of American fighting men and women at higher risk than necessary every day in Iraq.
They claim they killed the bill because it would not allow sufficient military control over tactical military intelligence that the Pentagon needs, as opposed to big picture strategic intelligence that the White House, the State Department, and the CIA need. But recent news articles strongly refute that position. One strong argument against killing the bill was given by Congressman Gingrey, who apparently thought it supported his position. He said on the PBS Newshour on November 24:
REP. PHIL GINGREY: Let me make it very personal. Tyler Brown, first lieutenant, killed in action. Georgia Tech graduate, president of the student body, 26 years old, was killed by a sniper three weeks after he arrived in Iraq from the DMZ. That young Marine, young soldier, Army first lieutenant, he needed information right away about where that sniper was, where that possible attack was coming from.
If we have to worry about that information going up the chain of command to an NID who is outside the Department of Defense, then we have some real concerns here.
Gingrey's example is of a man whose life was lost because the present Pentagon system did not work, not of a man whose life was saved by the current system. It is an argument for improvement, not for the status quo. In addition, today's New York Times says that in Iraq and Afghanistan, as well as other hot spots, the military increasingly relies on civilian, commercial satellite imagery, not military intelligence satellites. Ironically, the commercial imagery works well, but the difficulty is distributing it to the troops in the field, the very thing that is said to work so well by those who defeated the intelligence bill. The NYT article says:
The unclassified source of the photographs is also critical, because the commercial images can be shared not only with United States partners - troops from the Iraqi National Guard or aid groups - but also with United States Army soldiers who often do not have security clearance. An image from a government spy satellite can be declassified, but the process is time-consuming. Even Iraqi war prisoners were shown some commercial images last year in an effort to locate hidden weapons....
During the conflict in Afghanistan in late 2001 and 2002, the Air Force used the United States mail to send cartons filled with CD's to pilots. The Air Force Combat Support Office set up what it called the Pony Express, delivering the CD's in person. Delays in creating and distributing the maps resulted in many missions being flown without up-to-date information, Air Force officials acknowledge.The existing problems with distribution of intelligence described in the NYT article are exactly those which the Republicans who killed the intel bill claimed do not exist but would be created by the intelligence czar in the bill.Army officials cite similar difficulties. A brigade combat team in Iraq took 18 hours to move from Baquba to Najaf instead of the typical six hours, because maps had not been updated to reflect that a bridge had been knocked out, said Robert W. Burkhardt, director of the Army Corps office that is building the Urban Tactical Planner.
A final example of how ignorant those Republicans are, and how uncaring for troops in the field, is an article in MIT's Technology Review for November 2004. The cover article shows Lt. Col. Ernest "Rock" Marcone with the title, "How Tech Failed Him." The article says:
Later the article says, "Once the invasion[of Iraq] began, breakdowns quickly became the norm.... In three cases, U.S. vehicles were actually attacked while they stopped to receive intelligence data on enemy positions. 'A lot of guys said, "Enough of this shit," and turned it off,' says Perry, flicking his wrist as if clicking off a radio. 'We can't afford to wait for this.'"Marcone says no sensors, no network, conveyed the far more dangerous reality, which confronted him at 3:00 a.m. April 3. He faced not one brigade but three: between 25 and 30 tanks, plus 70 to 80 armored personnel carriers, artillery, and between 5,000 and 10,000 Iraqi soldiers coming from three directions. This mass of firepower and soldiers attacked a U.S. force of 1,000 soldiers supported by just 30 tanks and 14 Bradley fighting vehicles. The Iraqi deployment was just the kind of conventional, massed force that's easiest to detect. Yet "We got nothing until they slammed into us," Marcone recalls.
This is the wonderful system that cannot be compromised in order to reform the intelligence community. I don't know how the people who make those arguments -- Hunter, Sensenbrenner, and Gingrey -- can look at themselves in the mirror, knowing that they are putting the lives of American fighting men and women at higher risk than necessary every day in Iraq.
Thursday, November 25, 2004
Thanksgiving Day
In discussing George Washington's first Thanksgiving Day proclamation, his biographer James Flexner refers to Washington's first inaugural address. About the inaugural address, he says:
The most remarkable aspect of what Washington wrote is the depth of its religious tone. He had often in the past expressed gratitude for the assistance of Providence to the American cause and had expressed hope that the boon would be continued. But never before had he devoted so much -- more than a third -- of a complicated pronouncement to religious considerations. That he was not just striking a popular attitude as a politician might is revealed by the absence of the usual Christian terms: he did not mention Christ or even use the world "God." Following phraseology of the philosophical Deism he professed, he referred to "the invisible hand which conducts the affairs of men," to "the benign parent of the human race."Flexner adds in a footnote:
That Washington intentionally avoided the word "God" is strongly indicated by his first Thanksgiving Proclamation. Having quoted Congress's request that he establish a day for thanking "Almighty God," in the part of the proclamation he himself wrote he used other designations.
Wednesday, November 24, 2004
Do We Care About New Russian Missile?
Russia announced several days ago that it had developed a new type of strategic missile, according to the Washington Post. Although Putin's announcement was cryptic, it noted that the new missile would be better able to avoid missile defenses. The Administration claims no one cares about our developing missile defenses, but Putin's announcement is a sign that someone cares. The idea behind the Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) treaty was that it would help avoid an arms race. It was one of the first treaties that Bush renounced, along with Kyoto. Now it looks as if the arms race is back, albeit at a lower level than during the cold war.
It's true that a lot of the hype was probably Putin bragging for Russian consumption. But again, why bring the subject up unless there is something to it. Furthermore, what do we really know about the new missile? How good is our intelligence? It is possible that the new missile is really some kind of a breakthrough that would significantly increase the threat to the US of a missile attack by Russia? Bush claims that Putin is his good buddy, but Putin has been doing some stuff in Russian political and economic sectors that doesn't endear him to anybody except lovers of the cold war. Of course one of those cold war lovers is Donald Rumsfeld. He would love to dump this messed-up Iraq War and get back to things he really loves, like missile defense. Does he know whether his new missile defenses will work against Putin's new missiles?
It's true that a lot of the hype was probably Putin bragging for Russian consumption. But again, why bring the subject up unless there is something to it. Furthermore, what do we really know about the new missile? How good is our intelligence? It is possible that the new missile is really some kind of a breakthrough that would significantly increase the threat to the US of a missile attack by Russia? Bush claims that Putin is his good buddy, but Putin has been doing some stuff in Russian political and economic sectors that doesn't endear him to anybody except lovers of the cold war. Of course one of those cold war lovers is Donald Rumsfeld. He would love to dump this messed-up Iraq War and get back to things he really loves, like missile defense. Does he know whether his new missile defenses will work against Putin's new missiles?
Friday, November 19, 2004
Ignoring Geneva Convention Is an Idea Worthy of Goebbels
To show how immoral and despicable it was for Bush to decide to ignore the Geneva Convention, it is enough to look at William Shirer’s The Rise and Fall of the Third Reich. Hitler did not make a conscious decision to ignore the Geneva Convention until the very end of World War II, when it was clear that he was going to lose as the Allies advanced across Europe, although there were certainly earlier examples of his ignoring the Convention without making a formal decision to do so. Describing Hitler in early 1945, Shirer says:
Hitler was in a fine fury. He sacked Rundstedt for the last time on March 10, replacing him with Field Marshall Kesselring, who had held out so stubbornly and long in Italy. Already in February the Fuehrer, in a fit of rage, had considered denouncing the Geneva Convention in order, he said at a conference on the nineteenth, “to make the enemy realize that we are determined to fight for our existence with all the means at our disposal.” He had been urged to take his step by Dr. Goebbels, the bloodthirsty noncombatant, who suggested that all captured airmen be shot summarily in reprisal for their terrible bombing of the German cities. When some of the officers present raised legal objections Hitler retorted angrily:
Shirer says that in the end, “there was no general massacre of captured flyers or other prisoners of war (except the Russians),” but “several were done to death and the civil population was incited to lynch Allied air crews who parachuted to the ground.”To hell with that!… If I make it clear that I show no consideration for prisoners but that I treat enemy prisoners without any consideration for their rights, regardless of reprisals, then quite a few [Germans] will think twice before they desert."This was one of the first indications to his followers that Hitler, his mission as a world conqueror having failed, was determined to go down, like Wotan at Valhalla, in a holocaust of blood — not only the enemy’s but that of his own people. At the close of the discussion he asked Admiral Doenitz “to consider the pros and cons of this step and to report as soon as possible.”
Doenitz cam back with his answer on the following day and it was typical of the man.
The disadvantages would outweigh the advantages . . . It would be better in any case to keep up outside appearances and carry out the measures believed necessary without announcing them beforehand.
It appears that Hitler’s officer corps had more moral integrity than the American officer corps has. The Germans officers sort of stood up to Hitler on this issue. They said even if you violate the Convention, don’t admit it. American officers in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Cuba just rolled over and spit on the Geneva Convention, regardless of what that might mean for the future treatment of American soldiers who become prisoners.
Who was the American Goebbels in the Administration arguing for disregarding the Geneva Convention? It sounds as if it was future Attorney General Alberto Gonzales. However, this Administration is full of people, who like Goebbels, are bloodthirsty noncombatants.
Wednesday, November 17, 2004
American James Bond Sings Soprano
After firing the senior CIA spy chief and his deputy, the new CIA Director Porter Goss has ordered all CIA employees to "support the administration and its policies in our work,'' according to the New York Times. The Times story said that one former CIA official supported Goss' firings, but "A second former intelligence official said he was concerned that the memorandum and the changes represented an effort by Mr. Goss to stifle independence..... 'If Goss is asking people to color their views and be a team player, that's not what people at C.I.A. signed up for,' said the former intelligence official."
The commentators seem pretty united in saying that the main problem at CIA is not the spies, but the analysts. Goss claims he wants more CIA risk taking, but he has fired (or forced the resignation of) those officials on the spy side who are most inclined to risk taking. And he has told the analysts that their analysis had better support George Bush, i.e., that they had better say that everything in Iraq is perfect. There is no unrest. The Americans are in complete control. Iraqis love the Americans and their life under American rule. If he fires and intimidates enough people, those are certainly the reports that he will get.
He has already begun emasculating the James Bonds of the agency, and I'm sure he'll go after uppity women, too. He will certainly stifle all independent thought at the CIA.
I can't understand why Goss, who supposedly was a clandestine services officer, would want to destroy the clandestine services. The only reason I can think of is that he was a failure as a spook -- hence his leaving CIA and becoming a congressman -- and therefore is taking revenge on successful spooks. It's nice to have family money as Goss does. It may not be good for America, but it's good for Goss.
CNN is reporting that Goss denies that he ordered the CIA to color its intelligence in favor of the administration. It's not surprising that he would, since his order undercuts the whole purpose of the CIA. At the entrance to the CIA is the following Bible quotation, "Ye shall know the truth and the truth shall make you free." By making a mockery of that sentiment, Bush and Goss demonstrate that they apparently hate the truth and hate the Bible.
The commentators seem pretty united in saying that the main problem at CIA is not the spies, but the analysts. Goss claims he wants more CIA risk taking, but he has fired (or forced the resignation of) those officials on the spy side who are most inclined to risk taking. And he has told the analysts that their analysis had better support George Bush, i.e., that they had better say that everything in Iraq is perfect. There is no unrest. The Americans are in complete control. Iraqis love the Americans and their life under American rule. If he fires and intimidates enough people, those are certainly the reports that he will get.
He has already begun emasculating the James Bonds of the agency, and I'm sure he'll go after uppity women, too. He will certainly stifle all independent thought at the CIA.
I can't understand why Goss, who supposedly was a clandestine services officer, would want to destroy the clandestine services. The only reason I can think of is that he was a failure as a spook -- hence his leaving CIA and becoming a congressman -- and therefore is taking revenge on successful spooks. It's nice to have family money as Goss does. It may not be good for America, but it's good for Goss.
CNN is reporting that Goss denies that he ordered the CIA to color its intelligence in favor of the administration. It's not surprising that he would, since his order undercuts the whole purpose of the CIA. At the entrance to the CIA is the following Bible quotation, "Ye shall know the truth and the truth shall make you free." By making a mockery of that sentiment, Bush and Goss demonstrate that they apparently hate the truth and hate the Bible.
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