North Korean Missile Test Failure

A lot of politicians and talking heads have taken solace from the failure of the North Korean Taepodong-2 missile shortly after its launch. They have not mentioned that the rocket sat on the launching pad for days, possibly being fueled and unfueled. Then, it looks as if the rocket was launched on a very short deadline, just after the Shuttle launched on July 4, which means that the technicians may have been under a lot of pressure to launch it quickly. They may have being doing this on the political orders of Kim Jong-Il, rather than the rocket scientists who built the rocket. If the test were done on political orders and on a political schedule, then we can take less comfort in its failure than if the test had been a purely technical one. On the other hand, because of that, the scientists may have gotten less useful data than if they had run the test on their own schedule.

State Deputy Sec Zoellick Leaves for Goldman Sachs

Bob Zoellick, Deputy Secretary of the State Department, is leaving to join Goldman Sachs, the State Department announced. This is probably bad for the State Department. Zoellick was a serious official, unlike the second rate Texans and Republican hacks serving in most of the posts in the Bush administration. It's unlikely his replacement will be as good as he was. It's also a sign that Bush is unable to keep good people when he manages to get them. It will be interesting what see what happens with Hank Paulson, who is going in the other direction -- from Goldman Sachs to the administration as Treasury Secretary.

Here is the Washington Post's take on his departure. There's a little bit of dissatisfaction that comes throught the interview about the second, third and fourth tier issues that Zoellick got stuck with under Rice.

American Embassy Cable on Iraqi Difficulties

The Washington Post published a telegram from the US Embassy in Baghdad about the problems Iraqis who work in its public affairs section have. It's personal vignettes rather than policy analysis, but it is very revealing.

Here is the Washington Post intro to the cable.

American Embassy Cable on Iraqi Difficulties

The Washington Post published a telegram from the US Embassy in Baghdad about the problems Iraqis who work in its public affairs section have. It's personal vignettes rather than policy analysis, but it is very revealing.

Here is the Washington Post intro to the cable.

The Economist on Nuclear Disarmament

This link goes to the article in The Economist magazine on the long term failure of the nuclear powers to disarm and what consequences this has for the future of nonproliferation and the security of the world. As usual with The Economist, there is a lot of "on the one hand" and "on the other hand," but kudos to them for raising this important issue, which affects Britain, as well as America, Russia and the other big five nuclear powers. America for years has pretended that the issue does not exist.

Hans Blix WMD Commission Report

This link will open up the final report of Sweden's WMD Commission, chaired by Hans Blix, for many years the head of the IAEA, and then the head of the UN's inspection of Iraq before the the Iraq war. I think Blix is a good man, dedicated to disarmament, and George Bush lowered himself by personally attacking Blix before the war.

Zarqawi Killing: US Conduct

A report in Forbes raises questions about US conduct when Zarqawi was killed. It says an Iraqi at the scene saw US soldiers beating an injured man. It's probably a case of "he said, she said," but it gets more credibility because of the allegations of US misconduct at Haditha and other places. The other bad precedent is the bloody carnage that occured when US troops found Saddam's sons Udai and Qusai. In the light of all the problems with Saddam Hussein's trial, it would be understandable if the US did not want to nurse Zarqawi back to health, and then try him. But that's the way it should be.

In any case, I am not a big fan of using air strikes to kill individual people. It is difficult to limit "collateral damage." I still remember an old Mad Magazine report that in Chile, Salvador Allende committed suicide by a "self-inflicted air strike."

Zoellick Threat to Resign

According to the New York Times, Bob Zoellick, the Deputy Secretary of State, has threatened to resign. His threat came before Hank Paulson was nominated to be Secretary of Treasury, and Zoellick's threat may have been part of a campaign to get himself named Treasury Secretary. Or, it may signal genuine unhappiness at State. His main portfolio seems have been Darfur, which is a political tarbaby with little chance of success, while his main expertise lies in economics. If he should leave State soon, it would be a bad sign for Rice. Zoellick is a serious, intelligent official, who has held senior positions in several administrations. If he's uncomfortable working with Condi Rice, it says something bad about her.

Iran Deal Is No Big Deal

Whatever we were doing to try to stop Iran from developing nuclear weapons was running into a dead end, where we were either going to have to invade Iran or let it go on about its proliferating business, as we have allowed North Korea. Since North Korea poses relatively little threat to Israel, we have allowed it to continue its nuclear program, with only a few lackadaisical, desultory meetings to give the appearance of concern, regardless of what threat North Korea may pose to US troops on the peninsula or to the South Korean population.

Israel, however, is much more concerned about Iran than North Korea; so, to please the American Jewish Lobby, we have to at least look like we are trying harder than we are with North Korea. Thus, this latest gambit of America's apparent willingness to join face to face negotiations with Iran. But, there are so many conditions with the Iranians, and so many disagreements with the Russians and Chinese, that it seems unlikely to go anywhere. Which is what hardliners like Cheney and Rumsfeld want. What the hardliners and the Jewish Lobby want is to blast the Iranian nuclear sites to smithereens. This "negotiation" offer is just a speed bump on the way to invasion, just as going to the UN before invading Iraq sort of appeased American doves and European "allies." The hawks are still looking for an opening. Fortunately, the US invasion of Iraq has become such a disaster that it will make invading Iran more difficult politically than invading Iraq was.

Full UN Report on Torture Criticizing Guantanamo

This link opens the full pdf version of the UN report criticizing the US for Guantanamo.

Article on Jewish Lawyers

This is an interesting article on how Jewish lawyers moved from small, Jewish law firms to large, mainstream, Protestant "white shoe" law firms representing large corporations.

Washington Institute for Near East Policy

This article gives a good background on one of the pro-Israel think tanks influencing US policy, the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

I discovered this article while looking up articles written by Richard Speier, my old nemesis when I was working on missile proliferation issues. This LA Times article says he was one of the authors of the 1987 Missile Technology Control Regime MTCR), which is true. However, if he had not been involved, the MTCR would have come into force sooner and probably would have been stronger. He was an acolyte of Richard Perle at the Pentagon, who held up formulating a US position on the MTCR in an effort to make it ban missiles absolutely. This, of course, is impossible, but it is a characteristic of politically right-wing, conservative approaches to arms control. In essence it means they don't like arms control (or international law) at all, because it doesn't make them feel absolutely safe. It's like saying that you should not outlaw murder because you can't be absolutely sure that no one will commit murder if you do outlaw it.

While looking to see what articles Speier has written since those bad old days when I was at the State Department feuding with him at Defense, I found that he has written for WINEP. It shows that if you are pro-Israel in Washington, somebody will look out for you. No wonder, AIPAC, WINEP and other Israeli lobbies are so successful! Interestingly, he also wrote an article on the dangers of the Iraqi al-Samoud missile in February 2003, before we found that Iraq didn't have any WMD. Another WINEP article dealt with the Israeli Arrow ABM missile which was a problem for us when I was working on the missile proliferation issue. To his credit, he continues to oppose the Arrow, which the US proposed during the Bush I administration to avoid the constraints on the US of the ABM (anti-ballistic missile) treaty, which the US has since renounced. Thus, the treaty is no longer a restraint on the US, and the US has less need of an Israeli proxy to do prohibited research.

Gergen Article Follow-Up

I've now read (somewhat quickly) McCullough's description of Truman's decision process for recognizing Israel. I don't see the quotation cited by Gergen, but it might be there. McCullough treats the subject in great detail, over fifty or so pages.

Truman may well have claimed, and might even have believed, that he did not decide to recognize Israel for political purposes, but we'll never know. If politics were not important, why did he think it was so important that the US be the first to recognize Israel?

Furthermore, McCullough says one of the most important considerations was whether Secretary of State George Marshall would resign over the issue. If Marshall had resigned, Truman thought he would be doomed politically because Marshall was so highly respected. It was only after Marshall said that he would not resign over the issue that Truman felt that he could go further, pushed hard by the Jewish lobby.

Marshall told Truman that if he recognized Israel, it would be a reason for Marshall not to vote for Truman, because he felt that Truman was doing it for domestic political purposes. This was a strong rebuke to Truman, but toothless, because Marshall never voted. He felt that it would inhibit his ability to carry out his duties to his country if he chose political sides.

Unfortunately there is no one in government today with the character and stature of General George Marshall. Marshall was in large part responsible for the Allies' victory in World War II. Then he was largely responsible for the US positioning itself to eventually win the cold war in the post-war world, sponsoring the Marshall Plan for the recovery of Europe, and perhaps avoiding a shooting war with the Soviet Union.

Gergen Article on Jewish Lobby Paper

David Gergen says in a 4/3/06 web-posted US News article (http://www.usnews.com/usnews/opinion/articles/060403/3edit.htm) that according to David McCullough, Truman recognized Israel "in spite of pressure from Jewish groups, not because of it." I don't have McCullough's book, but I don't think history supports this claim. Truman's Secretary of State, General George Marshall, opposed the recognition of Israel, because he thought that Truman was doing it for election year politics, and not because it was the right thing to do from a foreign policy perspective. The primary advocate for recognizing Israel was Clark Clifford, who was then Truman's advisor for domestic political affairs.

One detailed reference to Truman's domestic political concerns is the following:
http://www.alfredlilienthal.com/marshallclifford.htm

Perhaps a more reliable description of Marshall's position is this posting by the Truman Presidential Library. See the entry for May 12, 1948, and the subsequent entries. Note that it says Marshall had send a special envoy to the UN to prevent the entire American staff at the UN from resigning over the Israel issue:
http://www.trumanlibrary.org/israel/palestin.htm

I will have to find McCullough's Truman book to see why he thinks Truman's recognition of Israel was motivated by foreign policy considerations when his Secretaries of State and Defense both opposed it strongly. I don't think Gergen should accept McCullough's characterization without question. That he does, seems to indicate that Gergen, for whom I have much respect, is under the sway of the Israeli lobby, and may not know it. He is living proof of the allegations made by Profs. Miersheimer and Walt.

Wash Post on Jewish Lobby Article

The Washington Post reported on the Walt-Mearscheimer article on the influence of the Jewish Lobby on American Mid-East policy.

Brazil's Nuclear Program Still Progressing

USA Today reports that Brazil is still improving its nuclear program, and like Iran is developing enrichment, but it is cooperating with the IAEA. As I have said before, the US is largely responsible for starting Brazil down this road by refusing to supply the uranium fuel for a Westinghouse reactor that it sold back in the 1960s or 70s when Brazil was trying to achieve more independence from foreign oil after the Arab oil embargo. Brazil has made progress in the nuclear field, as well as in the substitution of ethanol for gasoline, two possibilities that President Bush suddenly discovered in his last State of the Union address. By contrast, Brazil has been steadily working on them for over 30 years.

Condi Rice's Oil Connections

With all the outrage about Exxon CEO Lee Raymond getting a $400 million retirement package, it's worth remembering Secretary of State Condi Rice's ties to the oil industry. She was a director of Chevron for ten years, from 1991 to 2001. She had a Chevron tanker named after her; however, the "Condoleeza Rice" was renamed the "Altair Voyager" shortly after she was named President Bush's National Security Adviser in 2001. Along with Bush's and Cheney's ties to the oil industry, the San Francisco Chronicle reported: "But critics said the ship served as a giant floating symbol of the Bush administration's cozy ties to the oil industry." Any questions why gas is approaching $3.00 a gallon and why VP Dick Cheney made $8 million last year?

If Exxon can pay $400 million for one man's retirement, and Chevron can build a Condi Rice tanker, you'd think somebody could afford to build a new oil refinery in the US. But apparently when you're a big shot investing money in your oil company has a low priority. The top priority is to get yours, pay yourself lots of money! Stockholders and consumers take 2nd or 3rd place, much less doing anything for your country. Poor America. Those she makes rich curse her.

NYT Op-Ed on Walt-Mearsheimer Paper

The New York Times has an excellent op-ed on the Walt-Mearsheimer paper on the power of the Jewish Lobby in America. One of its best points is that criticism of Israel or of American policy toward Israel is not necessarily anti-Semitism. The use of the anti-Semitism epithet is effective, but if overused or used improperly, it may become like the boy crying wolf. Then what do Jews do if true anti-Semitism rears its head?

Dispute over German Archives

This Washington Post article about the difficulty of access to German archives dealing with the Holocaust reminds me of a question I sometimes have when I hear about the Holocaust. How many Holocaust survivors cooperated with the Nazi death camp guards as "capos"? These were Jews who assisted the German prison guards in suppressing their Jewish fellow prisoners. While I would guess they were not favorably viewed by the other prisoners, they could grant favors. There was an example of this in the movie, "The Pianist." As one review notes, the star "was saved from transport to the death camps by a Jewish capo."

If, in fact, many Holocaust survivors were capos, they would probably never admit it. It would be interesting if these archives could shed any light on this issue.

Non-Proliferation Links

The NYT has published a list of non-proliferation site links:

The following related sites provide further information about nuclear technology and proliferation.

Managing the Atom Project, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard UniversityConducts policy-relevant research on issues affecting the future of nuclear weapons and nuclear energy technology.

Institute for Science and International SecurityNon-profit, non-partisan institution dedicated to informing the public about science and policy issues affecting international security. Its efforts focus on stopping the spread of nuclear weapons, bringing about greater transparency of nuclear activities worldwide and achieving deep reductions in nuclear arsenals.

Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Non-Proliferation ProjectClearinghouse of information, maps, chronologies and links on nuclear proliferation.

Nuclear Threat InitiativeNTI works to reduce the global threat from nuclear, biological and chemical weapons and is co-chaired by Ted Turner and Sam Nunn.

Center for Non-Proliferation Studies, Monterey Institute of International StudiesProvides information and analysis to combat the spread of weapons of mass destruction.

Federal Police of Malaysia: Press ReleasePress briefing report by Federal Police of Malaysia on their investigation of the Khan Network. Excellent source of fairly detailed information not normally made available to public.