The Paris
Agreement on Climate Change said that the increase in global average
temperature above pre-industrial levels should be held well below 2 degrees
Celsius. It called for efforts to limite
the temperature increase to 1.5 degrees Celsius.
We will not achieve this goal.
Achieving this goal would require strenuous efforts by all
the countries of the world, particularly the rich, industrialized
countries. Very few, if any, countries
are making the required effort. This
means that we are likely to pass the limits set by the agreement, with the
accompanying disruptions of the climate – storms, droughts, heat waves, floods,
polar melting, sea level rise, etc.
Achieving the goal is further complicated by the energy
crisis brought on by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the reduction of Russian
energy exports to Western and Central Europe. The European energy crisis is forcing Europe
to turn to polluting fossil fuels – even coal -- that increase global warming.
Renewable energy sources, mainly solar and wind, will not
come on line fast enough to replace fossil fuels. Nuclear plants also take a long time to build
and need a long lead time to come on line.
In the short term we will continue to rely on fossil fuels that increase
global warming.
According to the NOAA climate.gov
website, the 2021 surface temperature was 0.84 degrees Celsius warmer than the
twentieth century average of 13.9 degrees Celsius and 1.04 degrees Celsius
warmer than the pre-industrial period (1880-1900). The earth’s temperature has been increasing
by 0.18 degrees Celsius per decade recently.
So, we don’t have many years to go before we reach and pass the limits
set by the Paris Agreement.
