Cheers for Angela Merkel

While the US is deciding whether Obama or Romney would be the best American leader for the next four years, I'd like to give a shout-out to someone who has served their country well for years -- Angela Merkel of Germany.  Today Germany is the strongman of Europe.  Merkel is taking a lot of criticism for how she is handling the Euro crisis, including today as she visits Greece, according to the NYT.  On the other hand, she gets criticized at home for being too lenient in handing out German cash to the poor countries of Europe.  She has become one of the most important politicians on the world stage, eclipsing to some extent Obama, Cameron, Hollande, even Putin and the Chinese.  She has helped make Germany prosperous at home in difficult circumstances.  Germany probably been the most exemplary country showing that it is possible to have good wages and full employment in a globally competitive world.  Good for her. 

Obama and the Bubble

Many of the commentators have been saying that the reason Obama did so poorly in the debate with Romney was that he has spent four years in the White House bubble, where everyone is a yes-man afraid to confront him.  This overlooks the fact that Obama meets with foreign leaders who are not afraid to talk back to him, to demand things from him, to say that he is wrong.  However, it was not a good sign when Obama refused to meet with any foreign leaders during the UN general assembly.  Did he know that he was not up to it? 

We usually don't see what actually happens when Obama meets with foreign leaders.  There are usually only a few high level aides present.  We got a glimpse when Obama and Netanyahu sparred during a photo session at the While House about a year ago.  The consensus seemed to be the Netanyahu took Obama to the woodshed.  That may be one reason Obama did not want to meet with Netanyahu again just before the debate. 

We don't know how Obama does in bilateral meetings with foreign leaders, but we know that the has them.  He may let Hillary Clinton take the lead.  But in any case he does not live inside the "no-drama" Obama bubble all the time. 

MTCR Terms Changed for South Korea

The reports that South Korea has been granted special permission to build missiles that exceed the guidelines of the Missile Technology Control Regime are confusing.  Reports in the New York Times and the Wall Street Journal said that South Korea and the US had agreed to extend the range of missiles that South Korea would build.  However, the MTCR is not an arms control treaty that limits the range of South Korean missiles; it is a suppliers agreement that limits the US and other members, who agree not to supply Korea with missiles or technology or parts for missiles beyond the agreed range.  Thus, it appears that the violator of the MTCR is the United States, not Korea. 

I assume that the US has gotten the agreement of the other 33 supplier-country members of the MTCR to this extension of range and payload.  It should not be a bilateral decision when the US is a member of a suppliers' group. 

Indian Nuclear Progam Was Bad Precedent for Iran

During the Bush administration, the US agreed to look the other way at India's development of nuclear weapons, despite the significant risk of a war between India and a nuclear-armed Pakistan.  India developed nuclear weapons years ago to defend itself against China, which already had them.  Then Pakistan developed nuclear weapons to defend itself against India.  While all that may make sense from a strategic perspective, it was terrible from a nonproliferation perspective.  We have basically said it is okay for India and Pakistan to have nuclear weapons to defend themselves against their enemies, or to have "mutual assured destruction," but we say that it is not okay for Iran to develop those same weapons to defend itself against its sworn enemy Israel, which already possesses nuclear weapons. 

In its original form, the Non-Proliferation Treaty granted special status to countries that possessed nuclear weapons when the treaty was negotiated, but many of the non-nuclear states objected to this dual status.  The NPT obligated the nuclear powers to disarm, but that has been a slow, almost non-existent process.  I recent years there has been a wider acceptance of the NPT by some countries, Brazil and Argentina for example, but not by others, Israel and Iran in particular.  Israel is in the position of forcing Iran to follow the NPT, which it adheres to, while Israel refuses to join it or follow it.  Israel insists that Iran obey an international treaty that Israel refuses to obey. 

Israel and India stand in somewhat similar positions, neither adhering to the NPT..  However, thanks to the US under Bush, India has been given a somewhat official pass, while everyone just agrees to look the other way regarding Israel's nuclear weapons.  The bottom line is that the NPT, which was under attack from its very inception for having a double standard, now has a variety of standards. 

As a result, although the NPT's verification mechanism, the International Atomic Energy Agency, monitors Iran's nuclear activities to some extent, since Iran is an NPT member, the IAEA is barred from Israel.  Because of the breakdown of the NPT's mechanism, Israel and the US cannot rely on it.  Thus, Iran's nuclear activities are removed the the UN's oversight and become the subject of bilateral threats to invade from Israel and the US.  The UN continues to try to work with Iran, but thanks to all the loosening of the NPT regime, the UN has little legal or moral authority.  By its past refusal to strictly enforce the NPT, the US has lost significant moral authority to restrict Iran's nuclear program.  Having lost its moral authority, it must fall back on its threats of military force.