Biodiversity Convention COP

 I saw Hank Paulson on Bloomberg TV talking about a report his foundation has done for the 15^th Conference of the Parties of the Biodiversity Convention.  A press release about the report can be found here, and the report itself can be found here. 

At the State Department in the 1992, I was the deputy director of the office of Environment, Health, and Conservation in the Bureau of Oceans, Environment, and Science (OES/EHC).  My boss, Eleanor Savage, spent about a year in Nairobi, Kenya, as the senior US representative negotiating the Biodiversity Convention.  The Convention was one of the three main agreements that were to be adopted at a big UN conference in Rio de Janeiro, the United Nations Convention on Environment and Development (UNCED), held June 3-14, 1992.  The other agreements were the Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the UN Convention to Combat Desertification. 

President George H.W. Bush (Bush I) attended the conference.  As planning began for it, President Bush said that the Republicans would not let him sign two environmental agreements; he had to choose between the Biodiversity Convention and the Climate Change Convention.  He felt that the climate convention was the most important; so, he could not sign the Biodiversity Convention.  The main opposition to the Biodiversity Convention was led by the office of Vice President Quayle, particularly his chief of staff, the conservative pundit William Kristol. 

The Assistant Secretary for the OES Bureau was Buff Bohlen, a member of the famous Bohlen family. His uncle, Chip Bohlen, was Ambassador to the Soviet Union, among other countries.  Chip’s daughter, Avis, also became an ambassador.  Buff (E.U. Curtis) Bohlen had been president of the World Wildlife Fund before he was named assistant secretary.  In that capacity he had been one of the principal architects of the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES), and preservation of wildlife was his main personal concern, which meant that he very much wanted the United States to sign the Biodiversity Convention, but political pressure on the President from Republicans like Kristol meant that we would not sign it.  I remember the disappointment on his face at a staff meeting when it became clear that there was no way to reverse the decision not to sign it.  

Although the US did not sign the convention, many other countries did; there are now has 196 parties to it.  Every country that is a member of the UN has ratified the treaty, except the US.  It is now about to hold its 15^th Conference of the Parties in Kunming, China, for which the Paulson Institute has prepared its report. 

Fed Market Manipulations

 It is unclear to me what the long term effect will be of the Fed’s huge role in the financial markets, not just for the pandemic, but since the 2008 great recession.  Interest rates have been close to zero despite stock and real estate markets that have been on fire.  Part of the reason may have been the Fed’s program of buying all kinds of bonds. 

When people want to buy bonds, interest rates stay low.  Governments or companies do not have to offer higher rates to entice investors to buy the bonds.  If it is hard to sell bonds, then borrowers have to offer higher interest rates to persuade buyers to buy.  If the bond market is unattractive to ordinary bond buyers, but the Fed steps in to buy at any price, the Fed keeps rates lower than they would be in a free market. 

What happens if these bonds go bad?  The Fed currently holds about $7 trillion in assets.  Presumably most of these are US government bonds.  While the Fed’s ability to purchase assets is unlimited, its ability to sell assets is limited by the amount of assets it holds.  If those assets become worthless, the Fed’s ability to sell them becomes more and more limited.  The Fed sells assets to fight inflation and keep interest rates low.  Currently there is no need to do this, since interest rates are zero. 

At some point, however, the dollar could threaten to become worthless.  Currently the dollar is the main international currency, which means that the US and other countries borrow in dollars.  China holds an enormous amount of US dollars.  According to MarketWatch, China holds $1.2 trillion of US debt; Japan holds $1 trillion, Brazil and Ireland hold $300 billion each, while other countries hold lesser amounts.  If the dollar became worthless, i.e., its value dropped precipitously against the yuan and the yen, the US would have to start paying much more for imports and perhaps pay in other currencies, such as the Euro.  More expensive imports would be inflationary, creating pressure on the Fed to sell assets that are becoming worthless. 

Although this scenario seems unlikely at the moment, with inflation at zero and the economy doing well, it is not out of the question for future.  The Fed should be thinking about how to unwind its huge asset holdings. The last time the US faced a debt problem like this, during World War II, it issued savings bonds and encouraged patriotic Americans to buy them, basically to finance the war effort.  It is not clear that most Americans are patriotic enough to do that again, especially if there is no threat of a physical, military invasion. 

In particular, black Americans do not like America.  They expect the government to give them money.  They are not interested in giving money to the government so that the country can survive.  Blacks probably won’t buy savings bonds, like white Americans did during World War II.  So, the government and the Fed would have to find some other mechanism to help the United States survive a different kind of economic calamity.  For now, we’ll just hope it doesn’t come, and that the government can just keep throwing money into the air for whoever can catch it first, probably Wall Street tycoons. 

Virus Model Numbers Going Down

Something important is happening as the coronavirus crisis continues: Estimates of its lethality keep going down. On March 31, the White House estimated that, even with social distancing policies in place, between 100,000 and 240,000 Americans would die of covid-19. Anthony S. Fauci recently indicated the government’s estimates will soon be revised downward.

The University of Washington model — which has been cited by the White House — predicted on March 26 that, assuming social distancing stays in place until June 1, U.S. deaths over the next four months would most likely be about 81,000. By April 8, it had made more than five revisions, to get to the current number: 60,415. That’s on par with the number of people estimated to have died of the flu in the 2019-2020 season.

 https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/without-mass-testing-were-flying-blind-through-this-crisis/2020/04/09/bf61e178-7a9b-11ea-a130-df573469f094_story.html

Wartime President?

In wartime, we expect our leaders to provide truthful accounts of the enemy’s treachery and a sober rendering of the costs of battle, as Franklin Roosevelt did after Pearl Harbor. By contrast, President Trump spent weeks playing down Covid-19, comparing it to the flu, and in January claimed: “We have it under control. It’s going to be just fine.” That caused many Americans to discount the threat and resist essential social-distancing measures.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/07/opinion/trump-coronavirus-us.html?searchResultPosition=1