China Policy

Foreign Affairs has published a dialogue on US policy toward China between Princeton Professor Aaron Friedberg and a number of China hands, including Stapleton Roy, with whom I served in Bangkok, before he was Ambassador to China. 

The group responding to Professor Friedberg’s article basically argues for treating China more or less like any other important country, trying to work with it, not singling it out a threat to the US which requires special economic and security policies to rein it in.  They argue:

U.S. policymakers must adopt a more careful and considered approach. The United States must coordinate with allies and partners not only to deter and compete with China when needed but also to incentivize Beijing to cooperate in addressing shared concerns such as global warming and current and future pandemics. Washington should aim to diminish the likelihood of nuclear war, the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and missiles, a costly arms race, and the spread of terrorism. It should seek a stable power balance in the Asia-Pacific region that respects the interests of all countries—including those of China. And it should revise and expand multilateral trade and investment agreements and foster international efforts to better address natural disasters and human rights abuses in all countries.

 

New North Koran Missile

 

The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists has commented on two unknowns about the new, large North Korean ICBM. 

One question is how mobile the new missile will be.  It is liquid fueled and huge, which means it will be hard to move, although it was displayed on a mobile vehicle.  Since it is liquid fueled, it  most likely would have to be moved to a fixed launch site and then fueled, allowing some advance notice that it is about to be launched. 

The other question is how many warheads it will carry.  After weighing the pros and cons of a multiple, MIRVed payload versus a single large warhead, the Bulletin seems to come down on the side of a single warhead as more likely to be within the technical prowess of the North Koreans. 

Biden Election

 

Joe Biden is saying all the right things since the election.  Unlike Trump, he has tried to soothe the national psyche by calling for calm and patience.  His decency is a welcome change from Trump’s vulgarity.  I believe he did win the election and should be inaugurated as the next President of the US. 

That said, however, this was not a good election.  The polls all predicted a “blue wave” and an easy election for Biden.  That did not happen.  Boden barely squeaked by.  The way the media hyped the incorrect polls indicates there was something rotten behind the media support for Biden.  The cities which put him over the top were all cities with large black populations known for political corruption.  There may not have been any, but the appearance is bad.  Atlanta, Philadelphia, Detroit, and Milwaukee were the key cities where the black vote put him over the top. 

The black votes in these black cities were clearly racist.  While whites and Asians vote on a number of issues – economics, education, taxes, social issues, etc. – blacks vote on only one issue – race.  As a result, the black vote is monolithic.  Something like 90% off all blacks vote Democratic.  They don’t care if the schools are good, only if they are integrated.  They don’t care about the economy as long as they get their welfare. 

I’m not sure anything illegal happened to sway the election but it looks bad.  The black vote in the black cities was the last to come in.  Courts in those states ruled that voting on election day was too complicated and that blacks couldn’t manage it; they needed extra time to vote.  So, they counted ballots that arrived long after election day, although in theory they were turned in by election day.  In fact, because of all the special provisions, who knows exactly what happened?  The courts made it easier to commit voter fraud, whether fraud was actually committed is another question. 

The 2000 election showed that all this moralizing about every vote should count is ridiculous.  Most votes are counted, and some votes may be counted several times, but the election gives a general indication of what the voters want, and as long as the election is not too close, the voters get what they actually voted for.  If the vote is really close in places where there are more than a few thousand votes, it would be just a fair and accurate to flip a coin to choose the winner.  George W. Bush was not elected by the American people, he was chosen by the Supreme Court.  Al Gore did the right thing and conceded because he was an American patriot who ended the election nightmare, not because he was actually defeated at the polls.  Who knew that Gore was ceding to a man who would fail to protect America from foreign invasion and start a war that has lasted 20 years with not discernable benefit to the US. 

Hopefully, Joe Biden will be a better President than George W. Bush and Donald J. Trump were. 

The Politicization of the State Department

 The Atlantic features an article on the politicization of the State Department under Trump, Tillerson and Pompeo.  They have tried to demand complete loyalty from State Department officers to the Trump agenda.  They have forced out some senior Foreign Service officers, and many others left what they felt was a politically charged atmosphere which accepted no input from career officers.  It reached a peak during the Trump impeachment hearings, and was illustrated by the drafting of an Orwellian " professional ethos statement" that seemed to challenge professional officers' loyalty.