Saturday, November 06, 2021

Biden's Plan vs the New Deal

 

Biden has often compared what he wants to do with his Build Back Better plan to Franklin Roosevelt’s New Deal.  When Roosevelt was elected during the Great Depression, unemployment was a huge problem.  People needed money, and there was no work.  Roosevelt created a number of programs to put people to work.  These included the Civilian Conservation Corp, the Tennessee Valley Authority, the Public Works Administration, and the Works Progress Administration.  

Unemployment was a big problem only at the beginning of the Covid pandemic.  It soon developed that many office workers could work from home over the Internet.  Many of those who couldn’t work from home continued to work in their service jobs at grocery stores, farms, etc.  Those who lost their jobs, mainly lost them because many travel-related businesses closed or became much smaller, hotels, restaurants, airlines, etc. Thee was a huge spike in unemployment, but it did not last long. 

Covid meant that a jobs program like the CCC was inappropriate because of fears about infection from concentrations of workers.  Thus the government just gave money to citizens to support them while they had to stay home.  There were some relief programs like this under the New Deal – the Federal Emergency Relief Act and the Social Security Act – but relatively few compare to jobs programs. 

Now, as the threat of Covid is reduced and people can go back to work, they don’t want to.  There are many jobs that cannot be filled, as more people drop out of the labor force.  Whether they will return for higher salaries remains to be seen.  What effect the higher salaries will have on the national economy remains to be seen.  It is not clear that there will be enough skilled workers to build Biden’s infrastructure projects.  Workers may have to come from other countries. 

In addition to paying people to stay home, the government reduced interest rates to almost zero in order to spur the economy.  The worked almost immediately.  After a big loss, the stock market recovered robustly, making many people rich in the process.  The government response had the perverse effect of increasing the gap between the rich and the poor in America.  While it prevented the poor from starving, it made the upper classes much wealthier, so that the pandemic was the best thing that had happened to them in a generation. 

The New Deal probably made some people rich, but not nearly as many as the pandemic did. It was quickly followed by World War II, which put everyone to work, but also used up all the nation’s resources, so that almost everything was rationed, for rich and poor. People made sacrifices for the Depression and for World War II, but nobody has made any sacrifices to deal with the pandemic, except for some doctors, nurses, and other service employees like grocery workers and meatpackers.    

Friday, November 05, 2021

Carbon Trading at COP26

 

COP26 is having a hard time developing a carbon trading market structure, which is bad news for nuclear power. Nuclear power is more expensive than some forms of fossil fueled power plants, but it would be more competitive if there were a real carbon tax on the greenhouse gases emitted by the fossil fuels.  No carbon tax encourages continued release of greenhouse gases. 

According to the Wall Street Journal, Brazil has been receptive to carbon trading proposals at COP26.  However, Bloomberg reports that poorer countries want more money from trading to pay for their costs to adapt to climate change, and the EU objects to giving them part of the funds from carbon credit exchanges between countries. 

There are also efforts to develop carbon trading markets outside of COP26, but a worldwide regime would be a big boost.  Identifying a cost for emitting CO2 seems like one of the best ways to limit it.  Of course, like all laws and markets, enforcement would be a problem. 

Thursday, November 04, 2021

Hypersonic Hype

 Foreign Policy magazine has weighed in on the hype about hypersonic missiles. It falls somewhere between my view that hypersonic missile developments are important, and Fareed Zakaria’s view that they are not.

What’s with all the hypersonic hype? “Ballistic missiles already fly at hypersonic speeds, so what makes these weapons so special?” a knowledgeable and nerdy SitRep reader might ask. The key difference is that ballistic missiles follow a nice, easy-to-track trajectory to their target.

But, missile defense systems be warned, hypersonic missiles can change trajectory and maneuver en route to their final targets, making them significantly more difficult to track. Hypersonic missiles are nothing new, but the pace at which both Moscow and Beijing are investing in these programs definitely is. Hypersonic missiles can also travel at five times the speed of sound. 

Two other big issues. Keep in mind: First, both Russia and China reportedly have designs to put nuclear warheads on their hypersonic missiles, unlike the United States. Second, there is currently no international agreement or treaty dedicated to limiting or monitoring hypersonic missiles, meaning absent a new campaign of international arms control diplomacy, we have the perfect recipe for a new three-way arms race.

Wednesday, November 03, 2021

Polling Is Worthless

 John Heilman looked like an out of touch idiot on “Morning Joe” this morning, as did most of his Democratic diehard colleagues sitting around the table.  The polls on the Virginia governor’s race were off, but the polls on the New Jersey governor’s race had no resemblance to reality.  Whether the Democrat Murphy wins or loses, the polls about the election that had him winning easily were wrong. 

Polling companies in America appear to be corrupt, bought by the Democrats who cite the fake polls everyday in the political punditry.  Based on polls, Hillary Clinton prepared a big fireworks display to mark her victory over Donald Trump in the 2018 presidential election.  Polling data seems to be strongly biased in favor of Democratic candidates, and the Democrats seem to cite polling more than Republicans, since the polling favors them. 

Unfortunately it makes the media and election campaigns look corrupt and undermines public faith in elections and democracy.  Joe Scarborough, John Heilman and the other Democrats are leading efforts against free and fair elections that are as damaging as Donald Trump’s.  America is becoming a third-world country, at least in part due to the Democrats plan to bring in as many third-world immigrants as possible to stuff the ballots for the Democrats. 

Youngkin’s victory, however, shows that there is hope for future elections, despite the Democratic pundits’ efforts to control them.