Wednesday, November 11, 2020

Risk of India-China Nuclear War

The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace has published an article, “After the Border Clash, Will China-India Competition Go Nuclear?” evaluating the possibility of nuclear war between India and China.  It concludes there is low probability of the conflict turning nuclear. 

China’s nuclear capabilities are far in advance of India’s.  The conflict in the mountainous region of their border does not lend itself to nuclear warfare.  Neither country sees the other’s nuclear capabilities as a significant factor in the current faceoff. 

China perceives the likelihood of an India-Pakistan nuclear conflict as more likely, and as something that could draw in China on Pakistan’s side.  Even that possibility, however, seems remote. 

So, the Carnegie Endowment’s conclusion as to whether the conflict might go nuclear seems to be no. 

Tuesday, November 10, 2020

Outer Space Arms Control

The Hill newspaper published an article on “How to avoid a space arms race” by several authors, including Bill Courtney, with whom I used to work at the State Department. 

The article reports that Putin has proposed an agreement to prohibit the stationing of weapons in space and the threat or use of force against space objects, but that there is nothing new in Putin’s proposal  Despite the Outer Space Treaty, which bans stationing weapons of mass destruction in orbit, Russia, China, and the US are all concerned about the possibility of warfare in space.  They all use space assets for gathering intelligence, for communications, for GPS location services, for monitoring weather, land use, etc.  These assets are potentially threatened by activities that are on their face peaceful, such as servicing old satellites.  If you can maneuver close to a satellite, you can probably destroy it.

A new space arms control agreement will be difficult, but the increasing importance of space for commercial and military purposes makes it more desirable as time goes on. 

Gates on Foreign Policy

In an article in Foreign Affairs, former Defense Secretary Robert Gates calls for less emphasis on military power in America’s foreign policy. 

Regarding the use of military power, Gates criticizes the failure to define clear goals for US military involvement and to let mission creep change the goals after military intervention starts.  There are many examples of this in the Iraq and Afghanistan wars, but also in the US intervention in Libya, which changed from humanitarian assistance to regime change. A new national security threat, cyber warfare, needs more attention

While he was Secretary of Defense, Gates often called for a bigger role for the State Department in Iraq.  He often pointed out that there were more members of military bands than Foreign Service officers.  Trump’s gutting of the State Department has made this situation even worse.  Gates calls for strengthening State and making it less bureaucratic, saying that the National Security Council cannot perform all the functions of the State Department, and he calls for re-establishing the roles of the related agencies, the US Agency for International Development, and the old US Information Agency.  USAID has withered while Chinese assistance to developing countries has expanded dramatically un the Belt and Road Initiative.  USIA has been rolled into the main State Department and has basically ceased to exist while the battle for world public opinion continues. 

. 

 

Monday, November 09, 2020

China Policy

Foreign Affairs has published a dialogue on US policy toward China between Princeton Professor Aaron Friedberg and a number of China hands, including Stapleton Roy, with whom I served in Bangkok, before he was Ambassador to China. 

The group responding to Professor Friedberg’s article basically argues for treating China more or less like any other important country, trying to work with it, not singling it out a threat to the US which requires special economic and security policies to rein it in.  They argue:

U.S. policymakers must adopt a more careful and considered approach. The United States must coordinate with allies and partners not only to deter and compete with China when needed but also to incentivize Beijing to cooperate in addressing shared concerns such as global warming and current and future pandemics. Washington should aim to diminish the likelihood of nuclear war, the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and missiles, a costly arms race, and the spread of terrorism. It should seek a stable power balance in the Asia-Pacific region that respects the interests of all countries—including those of China. And it should revise and expand multilateral trade and investment agreements and foster international efforts to better address natural disasters and human rights abuses in all countries.

 

New North Koran Missile

 

The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists has commented on two unknowns about the new, large North Korean ICBM. 

One question is how mobile the new missile will be.  It is liquid fueled and huge, which means it will be hard to move, although it was displayed on a mobile vehicle.  Since it is liquid fueled, it  most likely would have to be moved to a fixed launch site and then fueled, allowing some advance notice that it is about to be launched. 

The other question is how many warheads it will carry.  After weighing the pros and cons of a multiple, MIRVed payload versus a single large warhead, the Bulletin seems to come down on the side of a single warhead as more likely to be within the technical prowess of the North Koreans. 

Biden Election

 

Joe Biden is saying all the right things since the election.  Unlike Trump, he has tried to soothe the national psyche by calling for calm and patience.  His decency is a welcome change from Trump’s vulgarity.  I believe he did win the election and should be inaugurated as the next President of the US. 

That said, however, this was not a good election.  The polls all predicted a “blue wave” and an easy election for Biden.  That did not happen.  Boden barely squeaked by.  The way the media hyped the incorrect polls indicates there was something rotten behind the media support for Biden.  The cities which put him over the top were all cities with large black populations known for political corruption.  There may not have been any, but the appearance is bad.  Atlanta, Philadelphia, Detroit, and Milwaukee were the key cities where the black vote put him over the top. 

The black votes in these black cities were clearly racist.  While whites and Asians vote on a number of issues – economics, education, taxes, social issues, etc. – blacks vote on only one issue – race.  As a result, the black vote is monolithic.  Something like 90% off all blacks vote Democratic.  They don’t care if the schools are good, only if they are integrated.  They don’t care about the economy as long as they get their welfare. 

I’m not sure anything illegal happened to sway the election but it looks bad.  The black vote in the black cities was the last to come in.  Courts in those states ruled that voting on election day was too complicated and that blacks couldn’t manage it; they needed extra time to vote.  So, they counted ballots that arrived long after election day, although in theory they were turned in by election day.  In fact, because of all the special provisions, who knows exactly what happened?  The courts made it easier to commit voter fraud, whether fraud was actually committed is another question. 

The 2000 election showed that all this moralizing about every vote should count is ridiculous.  Most votes are counted, and some votes may be counted several times, but the election gives a general indication of what the voters want, and as long as the election is not too close, the voters get what they actually voted for.  If the vote is really close in places where there are more than a few thousand votes, it would be just a fair and accurate to flip a coin to choose the winner.  George W. Bush was not elected by the American people, he was chosen by the Supreme Court.  Al Gore did the right thing and conceded because he was an American patriot who ended the election nightmare, not because he was actually defeated at the polls.  Who knew that Gore was ceding to a man who would fail to protect America from foreign invasion and start a war that has lasted 20 years with not discernable benefit to the US. 

Hopefully, Joe Biden will be a better President than George W. Bush and Donald J. Trump were. 

Thursday, November 05, 2020

The Politicization of the State Department

 The Atlantic features an article on the politicization of the State Department under Trump, Tillerson and Pompeo.  They have tried to demand complete loyalty from State Department officers to the Trump agenda.  They have forced out some senior Foreign Service officers, and many others left what they felt was a politically charged atmosphere which accepted no input from career officers.  It reached a peak during the Trump impeachment hearings, and was illustrated by the drafting of an Orwellian " professional ethos statement" that seemed to challenge professional officers' loyalty.  

50 Countries Ratify Treaty to Prohibit Nuclear Weapons

 Fifty countries have ratified the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons, according to the UN, as reported by the New York Times.  The US and other countries with nuclear weapons have refused to accept it.  

Leading Candidates to Be Biden's Secretary of State

 Politico lists the leading candidates to be Biden's Secretary of State:

  • Senator Chris Coons of Delaware
  • Senator Chris Murphy of Connecticut
  • Susan Rice, former National Security Adviser
  • Anthony Blinken, former Deputy Secretary of State
  • Samantha Power, former Ambassador to the UN
  • Tom Donilon, former National Security Adviser
  • Wendy Sherman, former Under Secretary of State
  • William Burns, retired Foreign Service officer, former Deputy Secretary of State
  • Nicholas Burns, retired Foreign Service officer, former Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs





State Department Needs More Science Specialists

An op-ed in The Hill newspaper calls for more scientists in the State Department

https://thehill.com/opinion/international/521444-the-state-department-needs-more-scientists

I was one of the first (and last) career science officers in the Foreign Service.  See my website.

Wednesday, October 07, 2020

Fareed Zakaria on the Future after the Pandemic

In his hopeful WP column on the world’s future after the pandemic, Fareed Zakaria cites Lawrence of Arabia and World War I peace terms.  From Lawrence of Arabia he cites, “Nothing is written” about the future.  For post-World War I, he cites the failure of the US to embrace the League of Nations, while Europeans imposed harsh terms on Germany. He does not mention that many of the harsh terms were perceived as coming from Jewish financiers, whether they actually were or not, and that this perception that Jews were trying to destroy Germany and the German people led in about a decade to the Holocaust. 

There is a danger that people will perceive the current financial crisis similarly as a K-shaped recession, benefitting the richest, many of whom are Jews like Jeffrey Epstein, George Soros, Larry Ellison, Sheldon Adelson, and many others.  They are at the top of the K, while many ordinary Americans are at the bottom of the K.  Will those Americans at the bottom of the K rebel in the future like the Germans did in the1930s.  Fareed basically hopes that the 2020s will be more like the 1950s than the 1930s.  Both periods were marked by the end of World Wars.  World War I ended with anger and oppression.  World War II ended with cooperation and generosity.  If the 2020 pandemic is similar to a World War, Fareed wants it to end like World War II, rather than WW I. 

The pandemic has gotten Europe to develop cooperation more strongly among the EU countries in the last few months.  Brexit is propelling Britain toward more separation.  Trump is distancing the US from Europe and most all of its long-term allies.  Fareed says the US need to develop a better relationship with China.

It is surprising to me that no one seems concerned whether the pandemic is some kind of Chinese plot against the West and the US in particular.  China seems to have almost completely recovered from the pandemic, presumably because of its authoritarian government, but also because it followed the advice of its scientists on how to deal with a pandemic.  The US may have been significantly weakened by its freer lifestyle.  Ironically, Trump and his conservative allies are saying maintain that freedom, while the liberal Democrats are saying that the US needs a more authoritarian approach to dealing with the pandemic.  Schumer and Pelosi believe America should follow the authoritarian Chinese model.  In any case, the Chinese will almost certainly emerge from the pandemic stronger vis-à-vis the US and the rest of the world.  Whether that is by plan or accident is still too early to tell for sure, although all the evidence available to date indicates that the corona virus release by China was accidental. 

At the moment I see the pandemic as a sign of worse things to come, but who would have seen the beginning of World War II as the beginning of the greatest growth in prosperity in the history of the world?  Maybe, as Fareed hopes, our better angels will take over, and we will be able to make something good out of something bad. 

Monday, September 28, 2020

Health Care and the Election

Three of the main issues in this election concern health care: the Covid-19 virus, Obama Care, and Roe v. Wade.

The health industry, particularly doctors’ groups and hospitals, has been remarkable quiet about the Covid crisis.  Only a few academics and government officials have been outspoken.  Local news shows often have individual doctors advising people to wear masks, but the AMA, hospital owners such as the Hospital Corporation of America, or insurance companies such as Aetna, have been quiet.  The exception has been the pharmaceutical companies, because they stand to make tons of money from a Covid vaccine.  They have mainly sung their own praises, rather than work on a strategy for dealing with the Covid-19 crisis.  In fact, the health industry has been reluctant to criticize Trump, because he has been good for their profits, leaving the criticism mainly to the media and some academic pundits. 

The talk about “Obama Care” in this election illustrates how bad the American health care industry has become.  While the political debate is focused on health insurance costs and availability, the real issue has been the inability or unwillingness of the health care industry to care for the American population.  For sure, certain sectors of the population have good care, but the population as a whole is not well served. 

The main problem with the American health care system is its focus on money rather than wellness.  Doctors make money when people get sick; they don’t make money if people stay well.  Therefore, their focus is on treating an acute ailment, rather than on keeping people healthy.  In addition, because of the obsession with money, poor people cannot get treatment for their acute illnesses, much less for care that would keep them well.  Obama Care is basically a way to get treatment for some poor people while keeping doctors very rich.  Doctors have tended to deal with Covid-19 as acutely sick patients to be threated individually rather than as a public health crisis to be dealt with by focusing on keeping people well, just as they treat people for a broken leg or a heart attack, rather than focus on wellness to keep people out of their offices or hospitals.   

Roe v. Wade, the abortion case, is a medical issue because it is a medical procedure.  It is an image problem for some doctors with some people, because they perceive doctors who perform abortions as murders, and being a member of a profession that includes a number of murderers tends to sully the reputations of all the members of that profession, at least with those who avidly oppose abortion. 

The fact that three of the main issues in this election are about health care indicates the depth of the problem for the industry in the US. Health care is a misnomer.  There is no care or love in the health “care” system.  It’s about money.  Many doctors start out performing real health “care” working in emergency rooms or small private practices, but they graduate to high paying specialties or lucrative private practices, and it is these well paid doctors who lead the industry publicly and politically.  They look out for their financial interests. 

Saturday, September 19, 2020

Biodiversity Convention COP

 I saw Hank Paulson on Bloomberg TV talking about a report his foundation has done for the 15th Conference of the Parties of the Biodiversity Convention.  A press release about the report can be found here, and the report itself can be found here

At the State Department in the 1992, I was the deputy director of the office of Environment, Health, and Conservation in the Bureau of Oceans, Environment, and Science (OES/EHC).  My boss, Eleanor Savage, spent about a year in Nairobi, Kenya, as the senior US representative negotiating the Biodiversity Convention.  The Convention was one of the three main agreements that were to be adopted at a big UN conference in Rio de Janeiro, the United Nations Convention on Environment and Development (UNCED), held June 3-14, 1992.  The other agreements were the Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the UN Convention to Combat Desertification. 

President George H.W. Bush (Bush I) attended the conference.  As planning began for it, President Bush said that the Republicans would not let him sign two environmental agreements; he had to choose between the Biodiversity Convention and the Climate Change Convention.  He felt that the climate convention was the most important; so, he could not sign the Biodiversity Convention.  The main opposition to the Biodiversity Convention was led by the office of Vice President Quayle, particularly his chief of staff, the conservative pundit William Kristol. 

The Assistant Secretary for the OES Bureau was Buff Bohlen, a member of the famous Bohlen family. His uncle, Chip Bohlen, was Ambassador to the Soviet Union, among other countries.  Chip’s daughter, Avis, also became an ambassador.  Buff (E.U. Curtis) Bohlen had been president of the World Wildlife Fund before he was named assistant secretary.  In that capacity he had been one of the principal architects of the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES), and preservation of wildlife was his main personal concern, which meant that he very much wanted the United States to sign the Biodiversity Convention, but political pressure on the President from Republicans like Kristol meant that we would not sign it.  I remember the disappointment on his face at a staff meeting when it became clear that there was no way to reverse the decision not to sign it.  

Although the US did not sign the convention, many other countries did; there are now has 196 parties to it.  Every country that is a member of the UN has ratified the treaty, except the US.  It is now about to hold its 15th Conference of the Parties in Kunming, China, for which the Paulson Institute has prepared its report. 

Fed Market Manipulations

 It is unclear to me what the long term effect will be of the Fed’s huge role in the financial markets, not just for the pandemic, but since the 2008 great recession.  Interest rates have been close to zero despite stock and real estate markets that have been on fire.  Part of the reason may have been the Fed’s program of buying all kinds of bonds. 

When people want to buy bonds, interest rates stay low.  Governments or companies do not have to offer higher rates to entice investors to buy the bonds.  If it is hard to sell bonds, then borrowers have to offer higher interest rates to persuade buyers to buy.  If the bond market is unattractive to ordinary bond buyers, but the Fed steps in to buy at any price, the Fed keeps rates lower than they would be in a free market. 

What happens if these bonds go bad?  The Fed currently holds about $7 trillion in assets.  Presumably most of these are US government bonds.  While the Fed’s ability to purchase assets is unlimited, its ability to sell assets is limited by the amount of assets it holds.  If those assets become worthless, the Fed’s ability to sell them becomes more and more limited.  The Fed sells assets to fight inflation and keep interest rates low.  Currently there is no need to do this, since interest rates are zero. 

At some point, however, the dollar could threaten to become worthless.  Currently the dollar is the main international currency, which means that the US and other countries borrow in dollars.  China holds an enormous amount of US dollars.  According to MarketWatch, China holds $1.2 trillion of US debt; Japan holds $1 trillion, Brazil and Ireland hold $300 billion each, while other countries hold lesser amounts.  If the dollar became worthless, i.e., its value dropped precipitously against the yuan and the yen, the US would have to start paying much more for imports and perhaps pay in other currencies, such as the Euro.  More expensive imports would be inflationary, creating pressure on the Fed to sell assets that are becoming worthless. 

Although this scenario seems unlikely at the moment, with inflation at zero and the economy doing well, it is not out of the question for future.  The Fed should be thinking about how to unwind its huge asset holdings. The last time the US faced a debt problem like this, during World War II, it issued savings bonds and encouraged patriotic Americans to buy them, basically to finance the war effort.  It is not clear that most Americans are patriotic enough to do that again, especially if there is no threat of a physical, military invasion. 

In particular, black Americans do not like America.  They expect the government to give them money.  They are not interested in giving money to the government so that the country can survive.  Blacks probably won’t buy savings bonds, like white Americans did during World War II.  So, the government and the Fed would have to find some other mechanism to help the United States survive a different kind of economic calamity.  For now, we’ll just hope it doesn’t come, and that the government can just keep throwing money into the air for whoever can catch it first, probably Wall Street tycoons. 

Sunday, April 12, 2020

Virus Model Numbers Going Down

Something important is happening as the coronavirus crisis continues: Estimates of its lethality keep going down. On March 31, the White House estimated that, even with social distancing policies in place, between 100,000 and 240,000 Americans would die of covid-19. Anthony S. Fauci recently indicated the government’s estimates will soon be revised downward.
The University of Washington model — which has been cited by the White House — predicted on March 26 that, assuming social distancing stays in place until June 1, U.S. deaths over the next four months would most likely be about 81,000. By April 8, it had made more than five revisions, to get to the current number: 60,415. That’s on par with the number of people estimated to have died of the flu in the 2019-2020 season.

Wednesday, April 08, 2020

Wartime President?

In wartime, we expect our leaders to provide truthful accounts of the enemy’s treachery and a sober rendering of the costs of battle, as Franklin Roosevelt did after Pearl Harbor. By contrast, President Trump spent weeks playing down Covid-19, comparing it to the flu, and in January claimed: “We have it under control. It’s going to be just fine.” That caused many Americans to discount the threat and resist essential social-distancing measures.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/07/opinion/trump-coronavirus-us.html?searchResultPosition=1

Wednesday, October 02, 2019

Schiff’s Whistleblower and the Mueller Report


The whistleblower complaint against President Trump alleges acts very similar to those examined by the Mueller Report which occurred during the June 9, 2016, meeting in Trump Tower between the Russian attorney Natalia Veselnitskaya, Donald Trump, Jr., and several other participants.  In both episodes there was the possibility of a foreign government giving Trump opposition research information relevant to his campaign opponent. 

The Mueller Report examined the June 9, 2016, meeting in great detail.  Its conclusion was that there was no violation of campaign finance laws.  The same conclusion should apply to Trump’s phone call with Ukrainian President Zelensky.  The Report said:

Accordingly, taking into account the high burden to establish a culpable mental state in a campaign-finance prosecution and the difficulty in establishing the required valuation, the Office decided not to pursue criminal campaign-finance charges against Trump Jr. or other campaign officials for the events culminating in the June 9 meeting.
In particular, on the question of whether opposition research provided by a foreign government constituted a thing-of-value, the Muller Report said:
… no judicial decision has treated the voluntary provision of uncompensated opposition research or similar information as a thing of value that could amount to a contribution under campaign-finance law. Such an interpretation could have implications beyond the foreign-source ban, see 52 U.S.C. § 30116(a) (imposing monetary limits on campaign contributions), and raise First Amendment questions. Those questions could be especially difficult where the information consisted simply of the recounting of historically accurate facts. It is uncertain how courts would resolve those issues. 
The Democrats working on impeachment refuse to mention the Mueller Report, although it is clearly relevant to their investigations.  Since the factual situations are so similar it is important to review the Mueller Report’s extensive analysis of the June 9, 2016, meeting between Trump Jr. and Veselnitskaya.  The Democrats would no doubt argue that they are different because Trump threatened to withhold aid from Ukraine, but in fact, Trump asked Zelensky to do him a “favor.”  A favor is not something you pay for.  It is something done at the other party’s discretion, and need not be done at all.  Zelensky did not do anything in response to Trump’s request, and Trump did not withhold the aid.  In that sense it was like the June 9 meeting in that nothing happened with regard to providing opposition research. 
Because it is so relevant, following is the complete text from the Mueller Report of its legal analysis of the June 9 meeting. 
Begin quote:
3. Campaign Finance
Several areas of the Office's investigation involved efforts or offers by foreign nationals to provide negative information about candidate Clinton to the Trump Campaign or to distribute that information to the public, to the anticipated benefit of the Campaign. As explained below, the Office considered whether two of those efforts in particular- the June 9, 2016 meeting at Trump
Tower Harm to Ongoing Matter ---:-eonstituted prosecutable violations of the campaign-finance laws. The Office determined that the evidence was not sufficient to charge either incident as a criminal violation.
a. Overview Of Governing Law
"[T]he United States has a compelling interest... in limiting the participation of foreign citizens in activities of democratic self-government, and in thereby preventing foreign influence over the U.S. political process." Bluman v. FEC, 800 F. Supp. 2d 281, 288 (D.D.C. 2011) (Kavanaugh, J., for three-judge court), ajf'd, 565 U.S. 1104 (2012). To that end, federal campaign- finance law broadly prohibits foreign nationals from making contributions, donations, expenditures, or other disbursements in connection with federal, state, or local candidate elections, and prohibits anyone from soliciting, accepting, or receiving such contributions or donations. As relevant here, foreign nationals may not make- and no one may "solicit,' accept, or receive" from them- " a contribution or donation of money or other thing of value" or "an express or implied promise to make a contribution or donation, in connection with a Federal, State, or local election." 52 U.S.C. § 30121(a)(l)(A), (a)(2).1283 The term "contribution," which is used throughout the campaign-finance law, "includes" "any gift, subscription, loan, advance, or deposit of money or anything of value made by any person for the purpose of influencing any election for Federal office." 52 U.S.C. § 30101(8)(A)(i). It excludes, among other things, "the value of [volunteer] services." 52 U.S.C. § 30101(8)(B)(i).
Foreign nationals are also barred from making "an expenditure, independent expenditure, or disbursement for an electioneering communication." 52 U.S.C. § 30121(a)(l)(C). The term "expenditure" "includes" "any purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit, or gift of money or anything of value, made by any person for the purpose of influencing any election for Federal office." 52 U.S.C. §,30101(9)(A)(i). It excludes, among other things, news stories and non-partisan get-out-the-vote activities. 52 U.S.C. § 3010I(9)(B)(i)-(ii). An "independent expenditure" is an expenditure "expressly advocating the election or defeat of a clearly identified candidate" and made independently of the campaign. 52 U.S.C. § 30101(17). An "electioneering communication" is a broadcast communication that "refers to a clearly identified candidate for Federal office" and is made within specified time periods and targeted at the relevant electorate. 52 u.s.c. § 30104(f)(3).
The statute defines "foreign national" by reference to FARA and the Immigration and Nationality Act, with minor modification. 52 U.S.C. § 30121(b) (cross-referencing 22 U.S.C. § 61 l(b)(l)-(3) and 8 U.S.C. § 1101(a)(20), (22)). That definition yields five, sometimes- overlapping categories of foreign nationals, which include all of the individuals and entities relevant for present purposes-namely, foreign governments and political parties, individuals
outside of the U.S. who are not legal permanent residents, and certain non-U.S. entities located outside of the U.S. ·
A and willful[]" violation involving an aggregate of $25,000 or more in a calendar year is a felony. 52 U.S.C. § 30109(d)(l)(A)(i); see Bluman, 800 F. Supp. 2d at 292 (noting that a willful violation will require some "proof of the defendant's knowledge of the law"); United States v. Danielczyk, 917 F. Supp. 2d 573, 577 (E.D. Va. 2013) (applying willfulness standard drawn from Bryan v. United States, 524 U.S. 184, 191-92 (1998)); see also Wagner v. FEC, 793 F.3d 1, 19 n.23 (D.C. Cir. 2015) (en bane) (same). A "knowing[] and willful[]" violation involving an aggregate of $2,000 or more in a calendar year, but less than $25,000, is a misdemeanor. 52 U.S.C. § 30109(d)(l)(A)(ii).
b. Application to June 9 Trump Tower Meeting
The Office considered whether to charge Trump Campaign officials with crimes in connection with the June 9 meeting described in Volume I, Section IV.A.5, supra. The Office concluded that, in light of the government's substantial burden of proof on issues of intent ("knowing" and "willful"), and the difficulty of establishing the value of the offered information, criminal charges would not meet the Justice Manual standard that "the admissible evidence will probably be sufficient to obtain and sustain a conviction." Justice Manual§ 9-27.220.
In brief, the key facts are that, on June 3, 2016, Robert Goldstone emailed Donald Trump Jr., to pass along from Emin and Aras Agalarov an "offer" from Russia's "Crown prosecutor" to "the Trump campaign" of “official documents and information that would incriminate Hillary and her dealings with Russia and would be very useful to [Trump Jr.'s] father." The email described this as "very high level and sensitive information" that is "part of Russia and its government's support to Mr. Trump-helped along by Aras and Emin." Trump Jr. responded: "if it's what you say I love it especially later in the summer." Trump Jr. and Emin Agalarov had follow-up conversations and, within days, scheduled a meeting with Russian representatives that was attended by Trump Jr., Manafort, and Kushner. The communications setting up the meeting and the attendance by high-level Campaign representatives support an inference that the Campaign anticipated receiving derogatory documents and information from official Russian sources that could assist candidate Trump's electoral prospects.
This series of events could implicate the federal election-law ban on contributions and donationsbyforeignnationals,52U.S.C.§3012l(a)(l)(A). Specifically, Goldstone passed along an offer purportedly from a Russian government official to provide "official documents and information" to the Trump Campaign for the purposes of influencing the presidential election. Trump Jr. appears to have accepted that offer and to have arranged a meeting to receive those materials. Documentary evidence in the form of email chains supports the inference that Kushner and Manafort were aware of that purpose and attended the June 9 meeting anticipating the receipt of helpful information to the Campaign from Russian sources.
The Office considered whether this evidence would establish a conspiracy to violate the foreign contributions ban, in violation of 18 U.S.C. § 371 ; the solicitation of an illegal foreign- source contribution; or the acceptance or receipt of "an express or implied promise to make a [foreign-source] contribution," both in violation of 52 U.S.C. § 3012l(a)(l)(A), (a)(2). There are reasonable arguments that the offered information would constitute a "thing of value" within the meaning of these provisions, but the Office determined that the government would not be likely to obtain and sustain a conviction for two other reasons: first, the Office did not obtain admissible evidence likely to meet the government's burden to prove beyond a reasonable doubt that these individuals acted "willfully," i.e., with general knowledge of the illegality of their conduct; and, second, the government would likely encounter difficulty in proving beyond a reasonable doubt that the value of the promised information exceeded the threshold for a criminal violation, see 52 U.S.C. § 30109(d)(l)(A)(i).

i. Thing-of Value Element
A threshold legal question is whether providing to a campaign "documents and information" of the type involved here would constitute a prohibited campaign contribution. The foreign contribution ban is not limited to contributions of money. It expressly prohibits "a contribution or donation of money or other thing of value." 52 U.S.C. § 3012l(a)(l)(A), (a)(2) (emphasis added). And the term "contribution" is defined throughout the campaign-finance laws to "include[]" "any gift, subscription, loan, advance, or deposit of money or anything of value." 52 U.S.C. § 30101(8)(A)(i) (emphasis added).
The phrases "thing of value" and "anything of value" are broad and inclusive enough to encompass at least some forms of valuable information. Throughout the United States Code, these phrases serve as "term[s] of art" that are construed "broad[ly]." UnitedStatesv.Nilsen,967F.2d 539, 542 (11th Cir. 1992) (per curiam) ("thing of value" includes "both tangibles and intangibles"); see also, e.g., 18 U.S.C. §§ 20l(b)(l), 666(a)(2) (bribery statutes); id. § 641 (theft of government property). For example, the term "thing of value" encompasses law enforcement reports that would reveal the identity of informants, United States v. Girard, 601 F.2d 69, 71 (2d Cir. 1979); classified materials, United States v. Fowler, 932 F.2d 306, 310 (4th Cir. 1991); confidential information about a competitive bid, United States v. Matzkin, 14 F .3d 1014, I 020 (4th Cir. 1994); secret grand jury information, United States v. Jeter, 775 F.2d 670, 680 (6th Cir. 1985); and information about a witness's whereabouts, United States v. Sheker, 618 F.2d 607, 609 (9th Cir.
1980) (per curiam). And in the public corruption context, " ' thing of value' is defined broadly to include the value which the defendant subjectively attaches to the items received." United States v. Renzi, 769 F.3d 731,744 (9th Cir. 2014) (internal quotation marks omitted).
Federal Election Commission (FEC) regulations recognize the value to a campaign of at least some forms of information, stating that the term "anything of value" includes "the provision of any goods or services without charge," such as "membership lists" and "mailing lists." 11 C.F.R. § 100.52(d)(l). The FEC has concluded that the phrase includes a state-by-state list of activists. See Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington v. FEC, 475 F.3d 337, 338 (D.C. Cir. 2007) (describing the FEC's findings). Likewise, polling data provided to a campaign constitutes a "contribution." FEC Advisory Opinion 1990-12 (Strub), 1990 WL 153454 (citing 11 C.F.R. § 106.4(6)). And in the specific context of the foreign-contributions ban, the FEC has concluded that "election materials used in previous Canadian campaigns," including "flyers, advertisements, door hangers, tri-folds, signs, and other printed material," constitute "anything of value," even though "the value of these materials may be nominal or difficult to ascertain." FEC Advisory Opinion 2007-22 (Hurysz), 2007 WL 5172375, at *5.
These authorities would support the view that candidate-related opposition research given to a campaign for the purpose of influencing an election could constitute a contribution to which the foreign-source ban could apply. A campaign can be assisted not only by the provision of funds, but also by the provision of derogatory information about an opponent. Political campaigns frequently conduct and pay for opposition research. A foreign entity that engaged in such research and provided resulting information to a campaign could exert a greater effect on an election, and a greater tendency to ingratiate the donor to the candidate, than a gift of money or tangible things of value. At the same time, no judicial decision has treated the voluntary provision of uncompensated opposition research or similar information as a thing of value that could amount to a contribution under campaign-finance law. Such an interpretation could have implications beyond the foreign-source ban, see 52 U.S.C. § 30116(a) (imposing monetary limits on campaign contributions), and raise First Amendment questions. Those questions could be especially difficult where the information consisted simply of the recounting of historically accurate facts. It is uncertain how courts would resolve those issues.
ii. Willfulness
Even assuming that the promised "documents and information that would incriminate Hillary" constitute a "thing of value" under campaign-finance law, the government would encounter other challenges in seeking to obtain and sustain a conviction. Most significantly, the government has not obtained admissible evidence that is likely to establish the scienter requirement beyond a reasonable doubt. To prove that a defendant acted "knowingly and willfully," the government would have to show that the defendant had general knowledge that his conduct was unlawful. U.S. Department of Justice, Federal Prosecution of Election Offenses 123 (8th ed. Dec. 2017) ("Election Offenses"); see Bluman, 800 F. Supp. 2d at 292 (noting that a willful violation requires "proof of the defendant's knowledge of the law"); Danielczyk, 917 F. Supp. 2d at 577 ("knowledge of general unlawfulness"). "This standard creates an elevated scienter element requiring, at the very least, that application of the law to the facts in question be fairly clear. When there is substantial doubt concerning whether the law applies to the facts of a particular matter, the offender is more likely to have an intent defense." Election Offenses 123. ·
On the facts here, the government would unlikely be able to prove beyond a reasonable doubt that the June 9 meeting participants had general knowledge that their conduct was unlawful. The investigation has not developed evidence that the participants in the meeting were familiar with the foreign-contribution ban or the application of federal law to the relevant factual context. The government does not have strong evidence of surreptitious behavior or effo11s at concealment at the time of the June 9 meeting. While the government has evidence of later efforts to prevent disclosure of the nature of the June 9 meeting that could circumstantially provide support for a showing of scienter, see Volume II, Section II.G, infra, that concealment occurred more than a year later, involved individuals who did not attend the June 9 meeting, and may reflect an intention toavoidpoliticalconsequencesratherthananypriorknowledgeofillegality. Additionally, in light of the unresolved legal questions about whether giving "documents and information" of the sort offered here constitutes a campaign contribution, Trump Jr. could mount a factual defense that he did not believe his response to the offer and the June 9 meeting itself violated the law. Given his less direct involvement in arranging the June 9 meeting, Kushner could likely mount a similar defense. And, while Manafort is experienced with political campaigns, the Office has not developed evidence showing that he had relevant knowledge of these legal issues.
iii. Difficulties in Valuing Promised Information
The Office would also encounter difficulty proving beyond a reasonable doubt that the value of the promised documents and information exceeds the $2,000 threshold for a criminal violation, as well as the $25,000 threshold for felony punishment. See 52 U.S.C. § 30109(d)(l). The type of evidence commonly used to establish the value of non-monetary contributions-such as pricing the contribution on a commercial market or determining the upstream acquisition cost or the cost of distribution-would likely be unavailable or ineffective in this factual setting. Although damaging opposition research is surely valuable to a campaign, it appears that the information ultimately delivered in the meeting was not valuable. And while value in a conspiracy may well be measured by what the participants expected to receive at the time of the agreement, see, e.g., United States v. Tombrello, 666 F.2d 485, 489 (11th Cir. 1982), Goldstone's description of the offered material here was quite general. His suggestion of the information's value-i.e., that it would "incriminate Hillary" and "would be very useful to [Trump Jr.'s] father"-w as non- specific and may have been understood as being of uncertain worth or reliability, given Goldstone's lack of direct access to the original source. The uncertainty over what would be delivered could be reflected in Trump Jr.'s response ("if it’s what you say I love it") (emphasis added).
Accordingly, taking into account the high burden to establish a culpable mental state in a campaign-finance prosecution and the difficulty in establishing the required valuation, the Office decided not to pursue criminal campaign-finance charges against Trump Jr. or other campaign officials for the events culminating in the June 9 meeting.
Mueller 183-188