The US has to decide what course to take regarding Turkey as
the recent suicide attacks illustrate the growing instability of the
country. The main issue facing Turkey is
how to handle the Kurds, both the ethnic minority inside Turkey, and their Kurdish
brethren in Syria, Iraq and Iran. Turkey
has for years declared the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) a terrorist group, and
the US and NATO have also listed it as a terrorist group. Currently, however, the Kurds in Iraq and
Syria are America’s best allies in fighting ISIS. Can the US support the Kurds in those
countries while acquiescing in Turkey’s opposition to them in Turkey, and
probably across the border, too? The
Turkish air force has been suspected of striking the Kurds while it was
supposedly supporting US efforts against ISIS in Syria.
If it were not for Turkey, the US could support the creation
of a greater Kurdistan consisting of the Kurdish parts of Syria and Iraq. We would probably be happy if the Kurds tried
to annex part of Iran, if we could avoid getting involved. However, we are involved in Turkey, which is
a NATO member. Turkey would not be happy
giving up a significant amount of its territory to a greater Kurdistan.
Adding to the problem for the US is the decline of the
Turkish government. It has become more
religious, and President Erdogan has become more authoritarian, producing
unhappiness among the Turkish people.
His party no longer holds a political majority, and the country is
facing new elections as he tries to get a majority. Thus, Turkey faces internal instability and
destabilizing pressure from outside. The
US cannot easily abandon Turkey, a longtime NATO ally, especially when we need
Turkey’s support in the battle against ISIS just across the border.
The US could lean
heavily on the Kurds in Syria and Iraq to reign in their brothers in
Turkey. We could offer more and more
military support, if they keep the Kurds in Turkey from making trouble. We could even wink and imply that if they
behave today, we might look the other way if they try to form a greater
Kurdistan later. Meanwhile, we should
work with the Turkish government to calm the situation there, to tone down its
campaign against the Turkish Kurds. But
Erdogan probably sees the Kurds as the greatest threat to his power, and the
recent suicide bombings, with whispers of Turkish government complicity,
illustrate the problems with that course of action.
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