On CNN’s Fareed Zakaria, Anne Marie Slaughter picked the
Turkey-Kurd issue as one of the most important for 2016, and I agree with
her. We have become increasingly dependent
on the Kurds in the most volatile parts of the Middle East in which we are
involved – Syria, Iraq, and Iran – and now the conflict is boiling over into
Turkey.
Turkey used to be a reliable ally, a secular Muslim country
with a competent government. Now it is
becoming increasingly sectarian, and the government is becoming increasingly problematic. One of the main issues for the government is
the irredentism of the Kurds in Turkey, who want to form a greater Kurdistan
with their Kurdish brothers in Iraq, Syria, and Iran. Years ago, Turkey got the West to agree to
characterize the Kurdish rebels in Turkey as terrorists. So, while the US is primarily worried about
ISIS terrorists, the Turks are mainly worried about the Kurdish
terrorists. When we ask the Turks for cooperation
against terrorists, we are thinking, “Let’s go kill some ISIS rebels,” and the
Turks are thinking, “Let’s go kill some Kurdish rebels.” Meanwhile the US is supporting the Kurds in
Iraq and Syria, who have been the main line of defense against ISIS.
Turkey sees the Kurds as a threat to its very existence; the
Kurds would cut off a chunk of Turkey and incorporate it into greater
Kurdistan. Where does the US come
down? On the side of the Kurds who are
fighting with us in Iraq, or with the Turks who have been NATO allies for many
years.
If we lose Turkey as a NATO ally, we face big problems in
central Europe. Turkey controls the
Bosporus. Without access to the Black
Sea, we have real problems confronting Russia’s recent take over of Crimea, as
well access in general to that part of the world. I would think the US Navy would really want
Turkey on our side. In addition Turkish
air bases give American air power better access to that unstable part of the
world. We would miss them.
But if we don’t support the Kurds, what happens in Iraq and
Syria? We have to balance our interests
there against our interests in other parts of the world, including Russia and
Ukraine. Plus, we have to worry about
where Turkey is going. Is Erdogan a
passing phase for Turkey, or does he represent a long-term turn toward a less
Western, more Muslim state? We don’t
want our opposition to push Turkey away toward a more religious Muslim
orientation.